Bitcoin's Down 7% Since Last Christmas Eve: Look At Its Rallies The Last 3 Times This Happened

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 7.5% since Christmas Eve 2024, potentially triggering a pattern that has preceded average gains of 126% the following year in all three prior occurrences.

The Pattern: Three Down Years, Three Massive Rallies

Bitcoin declined year-over-year on Christmas Eve in exactly three instances over the past 12 years: 2014, 2018, and 2022. 

Each time, the subsequent year delivered explosive returns.

In 2014, Bitcoin fell 51.4% to $323. The following year, 2015, Bitcoin rallied 40.9%. 

In 2018, Bitcoin crashed 70.8% to $4,079. The next year, 2019, Bitcoin surged 79.4%. 

Similarly, in 2022, Bitcoin collapsed 66.9% to $16,822. The following year, 2023, Bitcoin roared back 159.8%.

The average: Bitcoin fell 63% on those three Christmas Eves, then gained 126.4% the following year.

2025 Mirrors The Setup

Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory mirrors prior down years. 

The asset opened near $94,120, rallied to an intraday peak exceeding $126,000 in October, then faltered dramatically. 

As of Dec. 24, 2025, Bitcoin trades around $87,000 down 6.8 % year-to-date and nearly 30% below its 2025 peak.

More troubling, Bitcoin is on pace for one of its weakest fourth quarters on record, down more than 22% since Oct. 1. 

Tax-loss harvesting and thin holiday liquidity have pinned Bitcoin in a narrow $86,700-$88,200 range.

If Bitcoin Repeats History

If Bitcoin follows the precedent of 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023, the math points to substantial 2026 upside. 

Based on the average forward return of 126.4% following prior down Christmas Eve years, Bitcoin could target:

• Conservative case: $125,000-$150,000 (43%-72% upside)
• Base case: $150,000-$175,000 (72%-101% upside)
• Bull case: $175,000-$200,000+ (101%-129%+ upside)

Experts and analysts tend to agree: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains a $200,000 Bitcoin target for early 2026. 

Grayscale Investments expects institutional inflows could produce an all-time high in the first half of 2026. 

Bitwise Asset Management predicts Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and set new highs in 2026.

What Could Drive It

Several catalysts support the historical pattern repeating. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $132 billion since launch, fundamentally altering the investment landscape. 

Corporate Digital Asset Treasuries accumulated 42,000 BTC in their largest addition since July, bringing aggregate holdings above 1 million BTC.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to cut interest rates as unemployment rises to 4.6%, its highest since 2021. 

Bitcoin typically benefits when rates decline. 

The federal government also established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve earlier this year, with government-held bitcoin estimated at $15-$20 billion.

Meanwhile, VanEck analysts noted that falling hash rates—down 4% in December, the sharpest decline since April 2024—historically serve as a bullish contrarian indicator. 

Periods of declining network power often precede positive 90-180-day forward returns.

Read Next:

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