CICC: 2026 PV demand is expected to restore energy storage and resonate with the domestic and international economy

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the main photovoltaic industry chain gradually bottomed out or even improved in the second half of 2025 with the help of anti-domestic sales, but improvements in financial statements slowed down marketability, so the continued promotion of anti-domestic sales is imperative, and component surplus prices may be the core. Although industry demand gradually weakens in 2026, supply-side backlash and leading enterprise alpha will help some companies turn losses into profits. Installed energy storage will increase consumption capacity, and PV demand is expected to recover in the mid to late 15th Five-Year Plan period. Due to prominent photovoltaic consumption problems, it has forced the marketization of domestic electricity and the development of regulated power sources, and energy storage resonates with the domestic and international economy.

Domestic consumption+overseas affordability+electricity demand, strong demand for energy storage

Consumption pressure brought about by the continued advancement of energy transformation boosts domestic energy storage policies and demand, combined with overseas energy storage parity brought about by falling costs, and allocation and storage demand brought about by data center power gaps and load fluctuations. The growth rate of new installed capacity for global energy storage is expected to be close to 50% in 2026.

Glass film differentiation due to weakening installed capacity, focusing on the second growth curve of copper paste and semiconductors

Domestic installed capacity will decline next year, and the profit situation of glass film companies will be divided. Companies with an overseas customer base will increase their share of exports and shift their profit focus upward, and other companies will face more intense competition. High silver prices promote the industrialization of silver-wrapped copper paste, and under pressure from the industry, auxiliary materials companies are actively seeking a second growth curve in the semiconductor and storage fields.

Valuation and recommendations

Valuation and pace: Currently, the valuations of major companies in the main industry chain are still at the bottom of the historical range of 1xp/b to 2.5xp/b. 2Q26 demand recovery+reverse internal rolling+product structure optimization is expected to usher in batch performance correction and sector opportunities. The valuation of energy storage has recovered after experiencing an increase in the second half of 25 years. Focus on demand exceeding expectations and delivering the next wave of markets.

In terms of targets, it is recommended to focus on: 1) high-quality large storage, industrial and commercial storage enterprise Artes (688472.SH), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Deye (605117.SH), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Yuneng Technology (688348.SH), etc.; 2) high-power components Jingke Energy (), Aixu (USD), Tianhe Solar (), etc.; 3) GCL Technology (03800), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (688223.SH 600732.SH 688599.SH 600438.SH Silicon companies such as Energy (688303.SH); 4) Xinyi Solar (00968), Follett (601865.SH), etc. with optimized patterns; 5) Dike shares (300842.SZ) and polymeric materials (688503.SH) that have implemented new products.

risk factors

Demand falls short of expected risk, anti-domestic effects fall short of expectations, geopolitical risk.