Guoyuan International: Giving Nuocheng Jianhua (09969) a target price of HK$16.81 as a “buy” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoyuan International released a research report saying that Nuochengjianhua (09969)'s revenue for 2025-27 is estimated to be RMB 2.01 billion, RMB 2.06 billion, and RMB 2.56 billion respectively, with net profit of RMB 117 million, RMB 17 million, and RMB 188 million respectively. The company holds about 7.2 billion yuan in cash and equivalent, with sufficient cash for innovative research. The company drives development through scientific innovation, and its products are strong. According to the DCF model, a target price of HK$16.81 was given, and a buy rating was given, which is a 28% increase from the current price.

Guoyuan International's main views are as follows:

Obutinib performed excellently in the SLEIIb phase trial

The company mainly focuses on the fields of hematomas, solid tumors and autoimmune diseases. Obutinib performed well in the SLEIIb phase trial: in the SLEIIb phase trial, the SRI-4 response rate (57.1%) of the 75 mg group of obutinib was significantly higher than that of the placebo group (34.4%). In the subgroup with baseline BILAG≥1A or ≥2B, the response rate of SRI-4 was 35% higher in the 75mg group than in the placebo group; in the subgroup with BILAG≥1A or ≥2B, the SLEDAI-2K score was 43% higher. CDE has approved the initiation of a phase III clinical trial of obutinib to treat SLE, and the first patient is expected to be enrolled in the first quarter of 2026.

The product pipeline is advancing at an accelerated pace, and zoletrinib has been approved for marketing

ICP-488, a novel TYK2 inhibitor developed independently by the company to treat cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE), was approved by the CDE for phase II clinical trials. ICP-488 blocks signal transduction of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-23, IL-12, and interferon type I by specifically binding to the TYK2 JH2 domain. The NMPA has approved the company's zoletritinib (ICP-723) for the treatment of solid tumor patients in adults and adolescents aged 12 and over carrying the NTRK fusion gene. The clinical data showed excellent results: high objective response rate (89.1%) and high disease control rate (96.4%), 24-month PFS was 77.4%, and 24-month OS was 90.8%. Clinical data are superior to first-generation TRK inhibitors. The phase III registration trial of obutinib for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in China has completed patient enrollment, and a new drug marketing application is scheduled to be submitted in the first half of 2026.

BD is progressing well

The company and ZenasBio Pharma reached a BD in October 2025. Awarded Zenas obutinib: non-tumor indication for multiple sclerosis outside of Greater China and Southeast Asia and globally; IL-17i for use outside of China and Southeast Asia, and CNS Tyk2i globally. Zenas makes an initial payment of $100 million in cash. The potential total value of this transaction exceeds 2 billion US dollars, and the cooperation with Zenas will greatly accelerate the overseas clinical development of the product.

Risk warning: (1) New product development progress may fall short of expectations; (2) Product commercialization progress falls short of expectations; (3) The complexity of the international situation exceeds expectations, and the progress of internationalization of innovative drugs falls short of expectations