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華爾街日報'Economists Got It Wrong:' Trump Takes Victory Lap As Strong GDP Shocks Wall Street
The U.S. economy's 4.3% third-quarter growth ignited a political victory lap and a fierce economist debate, as President Donald Trump celebrated. Analysts, however, question how much of the boom can last.
Trump took to social media minutes after the GDP release, framing the report as a sweeping validation of his economic agenda.
"Q3 GDP came in at 4.3%, blowing past expectations," Trump said. "The success is due to good government, and tariffs."
He added that "60 of 61 Bloomberg economists got it wrong," highlighting that consumer spending was "strong," net exports were "way up," trade deficits were "way down," and that there was "no inflation."
The data itself was undeniably strong. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, well above expectations of 3.3% and faster than the prior quarter's 3.8% growth — the strongest reading since late 2023.
Trump said investment was "setting records" because of tax cuts and tariffs, calling the moment a "Trump Economic Golden Age."
Wall Street economists, however, delivered a more nuanced read.
Is The US Economy As Strong As It Looks?
Economist Mohamed El-Erian said the headline number reflected powerful momentum but came with important risks.
"US Q-3 GDP just shattered expectations at 4.3%," El-Erian said. "Strong growth came with a hot price deflator."
Resilient consumer spending has now been joined by an artificial intelligence-led capital expenditure surge, he explained.
El-Erian also highlighted what he called an "unsettling decoupling of GDP from employment," pointing to potential economic, political and social consequences.
Gerard MacDonell, economist at 22V Research, focused on the supply side of the economy.
"Booming productivity and surging profits should reduce the risk of a landslide in the demand for labor," MacDonell said, adding the concern still exists but "should be a slightly lesser one now."
That view contrasts with fears that rapid productivity gains could weaken job growth if demand slows.
"The GDP number this morning was exceptional," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said. "It was a full percentage point higher than what was expected."
He said if growth stays near this pace, worries about a slowing economy could flip back toward inflation risks.
"The path of least resistance is higher until the end of the year," Zaccarelli said.
Are Trade Flows Distorting The Picture?
Oxford Economics’ lead U.S. economist Michael Pearce cautioned that parts of the GDP surge were inflated by temporary factors.
"The strong rise in GDP in Q3 was flattered by a rise in defense spending and a big contribution from net trade," Pearce said.
He said swings tied to tariff frontloading have added volatility to quarterly data and said underlying demand looked solid but less spectacular.
Pearce said business investment growth actually slowed, despite the hype around AI, and noted that real disposable incomes were essentially flat.
"The K-shaped consumer is alive and well," Pearce said.
Heather Long also agreed, saying trade distortions added more than a percentage point to GDP.
"Artificially low imports and ‘high' exports did make GDP look better," Long said.
She said consumer spending remained strong at 3.5% growth but estimated the true pace closer to 2.5% to 3%.
"It depends a lot on Americans keeping their jobs," Long said.
For now, Trump is selling the headline number as proof of economic dominance — while economists caution that beneath the 4.3% print, the details matter far more than the celebration.
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