ICON (ICLR): Assessing Valuation After a Recent 9% Share Price Rebound

ICON (ICLR) has quietly bounced about 9% over the past month, even though the stock is still down sharply this year. That mix of recent momentum and longer term underperformance raises a clear valuation question.

See our latest analysis for ICON.

The recent 1 day share price return of 3.09 percent and 30 day share price return of 8.86 percent suggest sentiment is improving, even though the year to date share price return remains negative and longer term total shareholder returns are still under water.

If ICON has piqued your interest, it might be worth comparing it with other specialised healthcare names by exploring healthcare stocks as potential next ideas for your watchlist.

With the shares trading at a discount to both analyst targets and some estimates of intrinsic value, yet still carrying patchy long term returns, the key question is whether ICON is now a genuine buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in a sustained recovery in growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.1% Undervalued

With ICON closing at $179.14 versus a most popular narrative fair value of about $206.19, the story frames today’s price as a discount on future earnings power.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.0 billion (and earnings per share of $13.99) by about September 2028, up from $794.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $801 million.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, rising margins and a lower future earnings multiple can still point to upside from here? Want to see the full blueprint?

Result: Fair Value of $206.19 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, elevated trial cancellations and persistent macro uncertainty could still derail bookings momentum and margin recovery, which would challenge the current undervaluation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this ICON narrative.

Build Your Own ICON Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ICON research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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