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    How Stronger Cloud Targets And Bullish Analysts At Atlassian (TEAM) Have Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 23:24:25
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    • In recent days, analysts at Wells Fargo and BTIG reaffirmed positive views on Atlassian, while corporate insider sentiment turned negative due to increased selling, including a sale by CTO Rajeev Rajan Bashyam earlier this quarter.
    • Atlassian also lifted its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal 2026 and reiterated a long-term 20% annual growth target, suggesting management still sees strong demand despite concerns about AI-related disruption.
    • We’ll now examine how Atlassian’s higher cloud revenue outlook and renewed analyst optimism affect its existing investment narrative and risks.

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    Atlassian Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Atlassian, you need to believe its cloud-first, AI-enhanced collaboration platform can keep attracting larger enterprises and more non-technical users, even as competition and AI skepticism persist. The key near term catalyst remains enterprise cloud adoption, particularly complex migrations, while the biggest risk is that AI tools eventually reduce traditional developer demand. The latest analyst optimism and updated 2026 cloud outlook do not materially change those core drivers, but they do reinforce management’s confidence.

    The most relevant update here is Atlassian lifting its fiscal 2026 cloud revenue outlook and reaffirming a long term 20% annual growth ambition. This ties directly into the cloud migration catalyst, because it shows management is still planning around ongoing seat expansion and stronger cloud monetization, even as investors question how AI could impact developer-centric workloads and long term usage trends.

    Yet while the cloud outlook looks brighter, investors should be aware that AI could still reshape demand for developer seats and...

    Read the full narrative on Atlassian (it's free!)

    Atlassian's narrative projects $8.7 billion revenue and $310.2 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Atlassian's forecasts yield a $245.24 fair value, a 49% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TEAM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TEAM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eight Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Atlassian cluster between US$201 and US$247, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set that against the company’s higher cloud growth outlook, which many see as central to its ability to turn AI investments into durable revenue over time, and you can quickly see why it helps to explore several different perspectives before deciding how this fits into your own portfolio.

    Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Atlassian - why the stock might be worth as much as 50% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Atlassian Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.