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    CTRIC IV Threat Reduction Win Might Change The Case For Investing In Amentum Holdings (AMTM)

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 21:12:12
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    • In December 2025, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency selected Amentum as one of six prime contractors on its US$3.50 billion, 10-year CTRIC IV program to deliver chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threat reduction capabilities worldwide.
    • This long-duration contract, alongside a separate US$120 million computing award from the Defense Information Systems Agency, underscores Amentum’s role in supporting critical U.S. defense and threat reduction missions across both physical and digital domains.
    • We’ll explore how Amentum’s CTRIC IV prime contractor role shapes its investment narrative, particularly its exposure to long-term defense threat-reduction work.

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    What Is Amentum Holdings' Investment Narrative?

    To own Amentum, you need to believe in a contractor that lives and dies by winning and executing complex government work while gradually turning thin margins into something more substantial. The recent CTRIC IV prime spot and the US$120 million DISA computing award reinforce that story, adding fresh contract visibility in threat reduction and mission IT at a time when Amentum has only just moved into consistent profitability and trades on a very rich earnings multiple. In the near term, investors are still watching for cleaner earnings without large one off items, better interest coverage and evidence that the new leadership team can convert this growing backlog into sustainable returns. The CTRIC IV role strengthens the contract pipeline, but it also raises the stakes on execution risk and capital discipline.

    However, Amentum’s premium valuation leaves less room for error if contract execution stumbles. Despite retreating, Amentum Holdings' shares might still be trading above their fair value and there could be some more downside. Discover how much.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AMTM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AMTM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$20 to over US$85, underscoring how differently investors are sizing up Amentum’s upside. When you set that wide spread against the company’s rich earnings multiple and dependence on winning and delivering large government contracts, it puts a spotlight on how each of these assumptions could affect Amentum’s longer term performance.

    Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Amentum Holdings - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Amentum Holdings Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.