Cinda Securities: Hainan customs clearance combined with peak season dividends focus on the duty-free sector

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched an island-wide customs clearance operation on December 18, 2025. The policy dividends brought by the customs clearance operation directly benefit the outlying islands duty-free consumption sector. Recommended attention: Trading company duty-free circuit and Hainan sector related targets: China Duty Free (601888.SH, Hainan outlying islands duty-free leader, full license+omni-channel layout), Wangfujing (600859.SH, obtained an outlying islands duty-free license in 2020, operates Wanning Wangfujing International Duty Free Port, “duty-free + taxable” dual-track operation), Hainan Airport (600515.SH, airport traffic+property+equity participation, participating in Haikou Meilan Airport Duty Free Shop), Zhuhai Free Group (mainly tax+cross-border, operating “Zhuhai Duty Free - Sanya Duty Free” in a joint venture with Sanya Travel and Culture Group Travel investment mall” ) etc.

Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:

After the customs closure of the entire island of Hainan, duty-free sales on the outlying islands continued to set new records. On the first day of customs closure on December 18, the amount of duty-free shopping on the outlying islands of the island reached 161 million yuan, a sharp increase of 61% over the previous year, achieving a “good start”. Since then, the popularity has not abated. From December 18 to 20, duty-free sales in the entire city of Sanya exceeded 100 million yuan for 3 consecutive days, with year-on-year increases of 45.8%/47% on December 19 and 20, respectively. Categories such as perfumery, electronic products, and high-end jewelry became popular among consumers. In the long run, as the number of zero-tariff products expanded from 1,900 to 6,600, accounting for 74%, an increase of nearly 53 pct compared to before customs closure.

The customs closure policy has significantly heated up the tourism market in Hainan, and the number of air ticket reservations has ushered in a rapid increase. During New Year's Day 2026, air ticket bookings to Haikou and Sanya increased by 19%/51% year-on-year respectively. Among them, Sanya, as the core duty-free destination, led the increase in ticket demand. International passenger traffic was also strong. International air ticket orders entering Haikou increased by more than 40%, and international ticket sales to Haikou during the 2026 Spring Festival doubled year-on-year, and countries such as Russia, Singapore, and Australia became major customer destinations. The continuous influx of tourists provides sufficient demand support for duty-free consumption on the outlying islands, forming a healthy interactive pattern of “travel+tax exemption”.

Starting in September 2025, tax exemptions on the outlying islands have bottomed out and picked up. Entering the third quarter, the unit price for duty-free customers on the outlying islands increased steadily, driving the overall industry to gradually recover from the previous adjustments. According to Haikou Customs data, duty-free sales on the outlying islands of Hainan in 9/10/11 were 1,733/24.25/2,379 billion yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates for the same month were 3.4%/13.1%/27.1%, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate continued to expand. Among them, the year-on-year sales volume on the outlying islands in September corrected for the first time after 17 consecutive months of year-on-year decline after March 2024, and rebounded to the bottom. Since then, favorable policies have continued to increase. On November 1, the optimized outlying islands duty-free policy was officially implemented, adding categories such as pet products and portable musical instruments. For the first time, departing travelers were included in the scope of benefits. At the same time, 6 types of domestic products were allowed to enter the duty-free channel using the “sell first and back” model, further broadening consumption scenarios and product supply. The results were immediate after the implementation of the New Deal. From November 1 to 17, duty-free sales on the outlying islands reached 1,325 billion yuan, an increase of 28.52% over the previous year, laying a solid foundation for good growth after customs closure.

China's free trade has an absolute leading position in the Hainan duty-free market, leading in market share and layout advantages. Hainan currently has 12 duty-free shops on the outlying islands, including the world's largest single duty-free shop, CDF Haikou International Duty Free City, and the 100-billion-dollar Sanya International Duty Free Mall, forming full coverage of the island's core business district. In 2024, the company's share of the Hainan duty-free market reached 82%, a steady increase over the previous year. In the first half of 2025, the Hainan region's revenue accounted for more than 53% of the company's overall revenue, making it the core revenue pillar. With its huge scale advantage, deep brand cooperation and perfect operation system, China Free continued to lead the industry after customs closure. On the first day of customs clearance on December 18, China Free Hainan's sales reached 250 million yuan, an increase of 90% over the previous year, far exceeding the industry average, and its leading value continued to stand out.

Risk warning: Consumer demand falls short of expectations, passenger flow falls short of expectations, and market competition intensifies.