Chimera Investment (CIM) Valuation Check After Q4 Dividend Reaffirmation and Analyst Downgrade

Chimera Investment (CIM) just reaffirmed its fourth quarter cash dividend at $0.37 per share, even as one major bank dialed back its rating on the stock heading into 2026.

See our latest analysis for Chimera Investment.

At a share price of $12.91, Chimera’s recent 1 month share price return of 5.82% suggests a modest rebound. However, its year to date share price return of minus 8.24% and 5 year total shareholder return of minus 28.94% point to longer term pressure, with the latest dividend move helping to stabilize sentiment rather than ignite strong momentum.

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With the dividend held firm, but analysts bracing for softer returns on equity, is Chimera trading at a discount to its long term income potential, or is the market already pricing in slower growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 11% Undervalued

With Chimera Investment last closing at $12.91 against a narrative fair value of $14.50, the most followed view sees more upside than the market is granting today.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.5 for Chimera Investment based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $382.2 million, earnings will come to $168.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 10.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.1 percent.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a mortgage REIT aiming for higher growth, fatter margins, and a lower future earnings multiple can still justify a richer price tag? The full narrative explains the forecasting logic, the earnings bridge, and the valuation math that ties these moving parts into a single upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $14.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside case could unravel if credit losses spike in a downturn or if short term funding costs jump, compressing margins and pressuring book value.

Find out about the key risks to this Chimera Investment narrative.

Another View: Valuation Signals Are Less Friendly

While the narrative fair value suggests Chimera is 11% undervalued, the market’s sales-based yardsticks tell a tougher story. At 5.6 times sales versus 4.8 times for the Mortgage REITs industry and a 2.8 times fair ratio, the stock appears expensive, leaving less margin for error if growth disappoints.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Chimera Investment Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own data work, you can build a fresh view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Chimera Investment research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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