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    HVAC Margin Squeeze And Slowing Earnings Might Change The Case For Investing In Carrier (CARR)

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 05:15:31
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    • Carrier Global has recently come under pressure as the HVAC industry experiences revenue contraction and margin compression, leaving the company with operating margins around 9.55% and muted earnings growth after several years of expansion.
    • This squeeze on profitability has sharpened investor focus on whether Carrier’s margin pressures are short-term cyclical forces or signs of deeper structural challenges in its business mix.
    • We’ll now examine how industry-wide revenue contraction and thinner margins may reshape Carrier Global’s previously optimistic investment narrative.

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    Carrier Global Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Carrier Global, you need to believe in its long term role in efficient, intelligent climate and energy solutions, despite near term HVAC softness. The latest revenue contraction and 9.55% operating margin underline that the key short term catalyst is margin stabilization, while the biggest current risk is that today’s pressures reflect a more persistent reset in pricing power and mix. If margins hold up through the downturn, this news may prove more cyclical than structural.

    Against that backdrop, Carrier’s recent dividend increase to US$0.24 per share is an important signal of financial resilience and capital allocation priorities during a period of compressed industry margins. For investors tracking catalysts, the capacity to keep returning cash to shareholders while margins sit under pressure will be a useful test of how robust Carrier’s cash generation really is when growth cools.

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    Read the full narrative on Carrier Global (it's free!)

    Carrier Global's narrative projects $26.7 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $72.14 fair value, a 34% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CARR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CARR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span an extremely wide range, from US$26.44 to US$50,066.89, showing how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, the recent margin compression across HVAC and Carrier’s 9.55% operating margin remind you to weigh these diverse opinions against concrete business pressures and explore several contrasting viewpoints before forming your own expectations.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.