Cinda Securities: Recommended SF Holdings (002352.SZ) in terms of increasing the share of e-commerce express delivery leaders in direct management

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that in terms of direct management, it recommends SF Holdings (002352.SZ) and is optimistic that the company will enter a new stage of development after the inflection point of operation and cash flow. In terms of the franchise system, under the promotion of “anti-internal circulation” in the express delivery industry, single ticket prices of listed companies have increased significantly month-on-month, and express delivery companies' performance is expected to recover significantly; the industry pattern has accelerated differentiation since 2025, and I am optimistic that the share of leading companies will continue to increase. I recommend Zhongtong Express-W (02057) and Yuantong Express (600233.SH).

Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:

Volume situation: Express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% in November, SF Express's business adjustment growth rate declined month-on-month, and Shentong also showed that Danniao led the increase in scale

1) Upstream drivers and industry aspects: The express delivery industry's business volume increased 5.0% year-on-year in November. From January to November, the cumulative online retail sales volume of physical goods was 11.82 trillion yuan, up 5.7% year on year. The growth rate was high, the total sales volume was about 1.7 percentage points year on year; the cumulative online shopping penetration rate was about 25.9%, -0.8 pct year on year; the cumulative value of a single package was about 65.4 yuan, -12.9% year on year. From January to November, China's express delivery business volume totaled 18.74 billion units, +14.9% year-on-year. Among them, the express delivery business volume in November was about 18.06 billion units, +5.0% year-on-year.

2) The company's business volume situation: In November, Dantao also announced that Shentong led to an increase in the company's business scale. a) Monthly value: In November, Yuantong's express delivery business volume was 2,886 million units, Shentong 2,502 billion units, and SF 1,534 billion units. Judging from the growth rate of business volume, SF Express 20.13% > Shentong 14.67% > Yuantong 13.55% > Yunda -4.19%. SF's average unit price in November increased 0.29 yuan month-on-month, from scale-driven to value-driven, which helped restore the company's profit margin. b) Cumulative value: From January to November 2025, the express delivery business volume was 28.260 billion units for Yuantong, 23.637 billion units, Yunda 23.453 billion units, and SF 15.158 billion units. Looking at the cumulative growth rate, SF Express 27.25% > Yuantong 18.10% > Shentong 15.43% > Yunda 9.27%.

3) Market share situation: Looking at the cumulative express delivery business volume in January-November, Yuantong 15.6% > Shentong 13.1% > Yunda 13.0% > SF 8.4%, compared with SF Express +0.8 pct, Yuantong +0.4 pct, Shentong +0.1 pct, and Yunda -0.7 pct.

Unit price situation: Business volume adjustment led to SF Express's unit price +0.29 yuan month-on-month, and Dantao led Shentong's unit price to +0.23 yuan month-on-month

1) Industry side: Unit prices in the express delivery industry increased 1.9% month-on-month in November. The unit price for the express delivery industry in November was 7.62 yuan, -8.3% year-on-year, +1.9% month-on-month. The cumulative price of a single ticket from January to November was 7.50 yuan, -6.8% year-on-year. Since August, the express delivery industry's price increase has had remarkable results. As of November, the price of a single ticket in the express delivery industry was 0.27 yuan higher than in July.

2) Company side: Business volume adjustment led to SF Express's unit price +0.29 yuan month-on-month, and Dantao led Shentong's unit price to +0.23 yuan month-on-month. a) Monthly value: November courier ticket price: 13.47 yuan for SF Express (+0.29 yuan), Yuantong 2.24 yuan (-0.05 yuan, +0.01 yuan month-on-month), Shentong 2.41 yuan (year-on-year +0.33 yuan, month-on-month +0.23 yuan), Yunda 2.16 yuan (+0.13 yuan, month-on-month +0.05 yuan); b) cumulative value: cumulative single ticket prices for SF Express 13.73 yuan, Yuantong 2.19 yuan (-4.50% YoY), Shentong 2.07 yuan (YoY +0.89%)), Yunda 1.98 yuan (YoY- 3.60%).

Core summary and outlook: The number of orders in the industry is still growing, the “anti-domestic roll” price increase has achieved remarkable results, and attention is being paid to the progress of “anti-domestic roll” and changes in the industry pattern

1) In terms of business volume: The e-commerce express delivery volume is still expanding. In the context of the further rise of live e-commerce, on the one hand, the penetration rate of online shopping consumption has further increased. On the other hand, the decline and fragmentation of online shopping consumption has driven the decline in online purchases of physical products with single express packages. The express delivery industry still has excessive growth compared to upstream e-commerce.

2) In terms of competitive order: In the context of “anti-internal circulation” in the express delivery industry, industry prices have gradually been restored since August. The industry has continued to promote high-quality development, and the express delivery pattern may accelerate differentiation. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent progress of “anti-internal circulation” and changes in the industry pattern.

Risk factors: Online shopping demand for physical products falls short of expectations; e-commerce express price competition worsens; terminal franchisee stability declines.