CICC: Global capabilities may become an important watershed in the development of e-commerce platforms, optimistic that Chinese e-commerce will go overseas to gain share

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that in the medium to long term, whether it has global capabilities may become an important watershed in the development of e-commerce platforms. Major overseas platforms have taken a series of actions to decentralize business areas, increase overseas warehouse fulfillment methods, improve operating strategies, and promote semi-escrow models, showing greater operational resilience and resilience to risks. China's overseas e-commerce is in a leading position in terms of cost performance and operational efficiency. It has shown strong resilience in 25-year external stress tests. It is optimistic that China's overseas e-commerce platforms will gain share in overseas markets in the future, and that the operating efficiency of each platform will continue to be optimized.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Overseas e-commerce platforms remain resilient under external disturbances

Over the past 25 years, adjustments in tariffs and tax exemption policies for small packages have become a major contradiction affecting overseas e-commerce, and regulations on overseas e-commerce have become stricter around the world. Under this headwind, the bank estimates that the GMV for overseas e-commerce increased by 12% in 25 years. Among them, the GMV of the four major Chinese e-commerce platforms also increased by 25%. In the medium to long term, whether they have the ability to globalize, or become an important watershed in the development of e-commerce platforms.

Localization and decentralization effectively address policy risks

The bank observed that major overseas platforms have taken a series of actions in decentralizing business areas, increasing overseas warehouse fulfillment methods, improving operating strategies, and promoting a semi-escrow model, showing greater operational resilience and resilience to risks. The bank believes that the business environment and overseas policy disturbances faced by overseas e-commerce will continue, but when the platform has stronger localization capabilities and decentralized layout, it is expected to reduce the impact of extreme conditions on platform operations, thereby achieving steady revenue and profit growth.

Revenue pressure from major overseas e-commerce businesses still exists in '26, and profit potential is high

Considering the European small package policy adjustments and the large business exposure of various platforms in Europe, the bank believes that the revenue of major overseas e-commerce platforms may be under some pressure, but the profit side is still in the general direction of increasing the frequency of customer orders and repurchases, and increasing scale to drive efficiency improvements.

risk

Overseas policy and regulatory risks, overseas tax risks, compliance and data security risks, macro-market risks such as exchange rates and inflation, company operation risks, and tracking and measurement errors.