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    What Cummins (CMI)'s Analyst Upgrades on Emissions and Data Center Demand Mean For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 01:12:35
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    • In recent days, Cummins has attracted renewed attention after several major research firms, including Barclays and Truist, upgraded their ratings, citing stronger confidence in its earnings outlook and positioning in heavy-duty engines and power solutions.
    • These upgrades largely hinge on expectations that upcoming emissions regulations and growing demand for data center power infrastructure could reinforce Cummins’ role across both traditional and newer energy applications.
    • We’ll now examine how this wave of analyst upgrades, particularly around emissions-driven engine demand, could reshape Cummins’ existing investment narrative.

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    Cummins Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Cummins, you need to believe its core engine business can work through the truck downturn while data center and power solutions help carry earnings. The latest wave of analyst upgrades reinforces that near term catalyst around emissions driven engine replacement, but it does not remove the key risk that a prolonged freight slump keeps North American truck demand weak and margins under pressure.

    Barclays’ move to lift Cummins to Overweight and raise its price target to US$546 directly ties into expectations for EPA 2027 emissions rules to spur a new engine cycle. That view aligns with the idea that stricter standards could support pricing and volumes for compliant platforms, partially offsetting softer truck markets and giving investors a clearer, if still uncertain, path for how Cummins’ next product cycle might support earnings.

    Yet investors also need to weigh how much Cummins still relies on a freight market where order rates and production cuts could...

    Read the full narrative on Cummins (it's free!)

    Cummins' narrative projects $40.6 billion revenue and $4.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $2.9 billion today.

    Uncover how Cummins' forecasts yield a $521.57 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Cummins’ fair value between US$280 and about US$640, reflecting very different expectations. Against that spread, the recent focus on data center and emissions driven power demand highlights how a single catalyst can shape views on Cummins’ future earnings resilience.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Cummins - why the stock might be worth 45% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Cummins Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Cummins research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Cummins research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cummins' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.