Operational efficiency “one rider at a time”! OpenAI's computing power profit margin reached 70%, supporting the $830 billion valuation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to media reports, OpenAI's efficiency in artificial intelligence (AI) operations continues to improve. Its profit margin on computing power reached 70% in October, a significant increase from 52% at the end of last year, and about double that of 35% in January 2024. This is an internal metric that measures the share of revenue after deducting the cost of running models for paid users of enterprise and consumer-grade products. This shows that although it has not been profitable due to high computing power costs, OpenAI is achieving a higher return on revenue for every minute of server operating costs invested to support the ChatGPT subscription business and sell model usage rights to enterprise customers.

According to a source familiar with the matter, the increase in OpenAI's computing power profit margin is due to two major factors: one is the continuous decline in computing power rental costs throughout the year, and the other is that the company has optimized and adjusted the artificial intelligence model to make it more efficient. In addition, OpenAI has also launched higher-priced subscription service packages to generate more revenue from some customer groups.

In contrast, according to media analysis, OpenAI competitor Anthropic's computing power profit margin last year was about -90%. The analysis shows that Anthropic is expected to raise this profit margin to about 53% by the end of this year, and its most optimistic forecast shows that this indicator may reach 68% next year.

Overall, however, Anthropic's forecast data shows that if AI model operation costs and model training costs for non-paying users are taken into account, the company's comprehensive server operation efficiency will surpass OpenAI.

Most people use the free version of ChatGPT, while Anthropic's chatbot has a much smaller number of free users. Therefore, in the future, OpenAI will need to commercialize this group of users through advertising or shopping rebates to fill this efficiency gap. At the same time, OpenAI is also vigorously promoting its enterprise version and paid software features for industries such as financial services and education, and is competing with Google (GOOGL.US) and Anthropic in these fields.

It is worth mentioning that at a time when OpenAI is in the midst of huge financing negotiations, this good news about its computing power profit margin may help dispel some investors' concerns about the company's profit prospects. According to reports, OpenAI is planning to raise up to 100 billion US dollars in a new round of financing. This round of financing is currently in the early stages. If OpenAI can successfully raise the full target capital, the company's valuation could be as high as $830 billion. According to the report, OpenAI plans to complete the latest round of financing as soon as the end of the first quarter of next year.

No more leading edge! OpenAI shifts strategic focus

At the beginning of this month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (Sam Altman) asked the company to suspend several sideline projects, including the Sora video generation project, for a period of about eight weeks, after issuing an internal “code red” to fully invest in ChatGPT improvements to cope with the increasingly intense competition. This decision highlights a deeper conceptual divide within OpenAI between “pursuing broad consumer appeal” and “achieving breakthrough research goals.” Ultraman believes that in order to ensure OpenAI's survival, the company must prioritize user satisfaction over its initial goal of pursuing General Artificial Intelligence (AGI).

OpenAI's dominance in the field of artificial intelligence seems to be a thing of the past. Google (GOOGL.US) released its latest AI model, Gemini 3, which claims to be the “smartest” AI model last month. In early testing, Gemini 3's performance has overtaken ChatGPT, especially when compared to the GPT-5.1 model recently released by OpenAI.

According to reports, Gemini 3 reached the top of the global AI model LMarena ranking with an all-time high score of 1501 points, obtained the highest score of 37.5% in the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark, which measures general reasoning ability, surpassed the 31.64% record previously held by GPT-5 Pro, and showed doctoral-level performance in several academic-level benchmarks, and obtained a high score of 91.9% in the GPQA Diamond test. MathArena Apex in the field of mathematics It set a new record of 23.4% in the benchmark and achieved a score of 72.1% in the SimpleQA Verified test in terms of factual accuracy, all significantly surpassing GPT-5.1.

Ultraman internally warned employees that Google's strong return to the AI field could bring “short-term economic pressure” to OpenAI, and Sarah Friar, the company's chief financial officer, also acknowledged to investors last month that ChatGPT's growth had slowed.

Another high-profile artificial intelligence startup, Anthropic, reached a “strategic partnership” worth 350 billion US dollars with OpenAI's main partner Microsoft (MSFT.US) and chip giant Nvidia (NVDA.US). Key players in the supply chain are beginning to lean towards competitors, which means that OpenAI's advantage in computing power resources may be weakened, while Anthropic's R&D and commercialization capabilities will be significantly enhanced.

For Ultraman, one particularly noteworthy sign is that the user gap continues to narrow. According to Google, its Gemini app already has 650 million monthly active users. In contrast, Ultraman claimed in October that ChatGPT had 800 million weekly active users. Despite differences in statistical caliber, competitors' user growth is evident.

This series of events has made OpenAI, which has become famous since ChatGPT launched nearly three years ago, and its control over the industry appears more vulnerable than ever before. As Google makes measurable progress in model technology and Anthropic receives support from giants, OpenAI, once synonymous with AI, is facing increasing pressure.

Some analysts expect that Google and Anthropic will continue to weaken OpenAI's lead. Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said: “Given Google's size, industry position, and first-mover advantage in the search field, Gemini is likely to seize market share, causing OpenAI and others to lag behind.” Gary Marcus, a senior scientist in the field of AI, is even more acute. He said, “OpenAI has basically squandered the technological leadership it once had. Google has caught up.”

Google's quick catch up is reflected in the number of app downloads. According to statistics from data agency Sensor Tower, in terms of app downloads, although ChatGPT still leads with about 87 million monthly downloads, Gemini's catch up speed is astonishing. From about 15 million monthly downloads in mid-2025, it soared all the way up to about 66 million at the end of October.

However, OpenAI is not completely at a standstill. Despite Google's latest model, Gemini 3, driving a rise in downloads, OpenAI's ChatGPT maintains an overwhelming advantage in user usage habits and activity. According to Sensor Tower statistics, in late November, ChatGPT accounted for nearly 90% of mobile chatbot sessions, while Gemini only accounted for about 4%. Meanwhile, on average, ChatGPT users open the app more than 8 times per day, far more than Gemini's 2.5 times.

Google's brief lead in downloads highlights a key problem — in the AI product market, attracting users to experiment and cultivating usage habits are two different battles, and the latter is much more difficult. This AI competition is shifting from snatching new users to competing for users' time, and the latter determines who can actually turn AI products into everyday habits.

Furthermore, Ultraman believes that the real competitor is not only Google, but Apple (AAPL.US). This is particularly evident as the integration of AI in consumer-grade devices becomes more critical. OpenAI has taken a large number of talents from Apple, showing its strategic layout in terms of hardware capabilities, which may play a key role in future AI applications.

Therefore, in the context of competitors such as Google and Apple rapidly advancing their respective AI technologies, OpenAI's decision to prioritize improving ChatGPT over other projects is significant. This means that the company hopes to maintain competitiveness by improving ChatGPT and consolidate its product share in a heated phase of big model competition to achieve more sustainable development.

Slowing commercialization puts pressure on financial sustainability

To maintain ChatGPT's position, Ultraman decided to suspend other non-core projects and focus all his firepower on ChatGPT. Among the suspended projects, the most notable one is its advertising business, which has broad prospects for commercialization. Along with the advertising business, the “pause button” was another two innovative projects: an AI agent project that can automate complex tasks such as shopping and health management; the other is the Pulse function, which aims to generate personalized information reports for users every day. These explorations of the future must make way for the present battle for survival.

Slowing the pace of commercialization means it will take longer for OpenAI to become profitable. Despite never being profitable, OpenAI's valuation soared like a rocket. However, high valuations must be supported by matching and predictable revenue data in the eyes of the capital market. According to financial data for the first half of 2025, OpenAI's revenue reached 4.3 billion US dollars, surging more than 200% year on year, allowing capital market investors such as SoftBank and Nvidia to witness its growth potential. However, at the same time, its net loss for the same period reached 13.5 billion US dollars, a significant increase from 3.1 billion US dollars in the same period last year.

According to the disclosure, approximately 70% of OpenAI's “annualized recurring revenue” comes from ChatGPT subscription fees. As a platform with over 800 million monthly active users around the world, ChatGPT has a huge traffic pool that any internet company would envy, yet only 5% of users are willing to pay in this huge traffic pool. The $20 monthly subscription fee paid by these monthly active users may cover part of the operating expenses, but for artificial intelligence, the “gold-eating beast,” the cash flow from the subscription fee is nothing short of nothing. From hardware costs, sky-high electricity bills, to human expenses for maintenance and R&D, everything is huge.

Therefore, if OpenAI is slow to come up with a clear and credible profit model to prove that it can not only change the world, but also make profits, then this huge valuation “bubble” could burst at any time. The profit gap is at the core of the “AI bubble theory” controversy that was raging before. What is even more worrisome is that if OpenAI is slow to come up with a credible profit model, a series of huge investments centered around the company will not return on a sufficient scale, which may cause the AI bubble to burst.

It is worth mentioning that HSBC previously issued a research report warning that even under the most optimistic growth assumptions, OpenAI will not be profitable until 2030. According to the bank's estimates, from 2025 to 2030, OpenAI's cloud and computing power costs will reach 792 billion US dollars. By 2033, its total computing power commitments soared to 1.4 trillion US dollars, of which the data center leasing bill alone was as high as 620 billion US dollars.

The report predicts that by 2030, OpenAI's cumulative free cash flow will remain negative, with a funding gap of up to 207 billion US dollars, which must be filled through additional debt, equity financing, or more aggressive revenue generation methods. In a context where it is impossible to monetize through advertising and difficult to borrow money, the sustainability of its business model is experiencing challenges.