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    Tenable (TENB) Valuation Check After New U.S. GSA OneGov Federal Cloud Security Agreement

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 19:16:41
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    Tenable Holdings (TENB) just locked in a OneGov agreement with the U.S. GSA, opening the door to wider adoption of its FedRAMP authorized cloud security across federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, through 2027.

    See our latest analysis for Tenable Holdings.

    Even with this federal tailwind and a new CTO sharpening its AI and exposure management strategy, Tenable’s momentum has cooled lately. The stock has delivered a roughly mid 30 percent year to date share price return and a similarly weak one year total shareholder return, suggesting investors want clearer proof that these wins will translate into durable growth.

    If this kind of cybersecurity story has your attention, it could be worth seeing which other high growth tech and AI names are gaining traction via high growth tech and AI stocks.

    With shares down sharply this year but trading at a steep discount to Wall Street targets, is Tenable an overlooked cybersecurity compounder in a structurally growing market, or is the market correctly pricing in slower future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 34.6% Undervalued

    With Tenable shares closing at $24.79 against a narrative fair value of $37.89, the valuation gap hinges on ambitious growth and margin assumptions.

    The convergence of IT, cloud, and OT environments requires organizations to obtain holistic risk visibility; Tenable's ability to consolidate multiple asset types (VM, cloud, identity, OT, AI security) in a single platform is resulting in larger deal sizes and growing enterprise adoption, directly impacting top-line growth and average selling prices.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how larger deals, rising margins, and a premium future earnings multiple all connect into that fair value? The narrative leans on bold revenue scaling, sustained profitability gains, and a valuation multiple more often reserved for elite software names. Curious which exact financial leaps need to happen for this gap to close? Read on to uncover the projections driving this call.

    Result: Fair Value of $37.89 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this upside case could be challenged if federal deal cycles slow or larger platform competitors squeeze pricing and crimp Tenable’s long term margin ambitions.

    Find out about the key risks to this Tenable Holdings narrative.

    Build Your Own Tenable Holdings Narrative

    If you are unconvinced by this setup or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Tenable Holdings.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.