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To own Universal, you need to believe its core tobacco business can withstand oversupply and margin pressure while the Ingredients segment gradually gains weight in the mix. The new US$1.40 billion credit facility modestly improves short term flexibility, but does not materially change the key catalyst of stabilizing segment margins or the biggest risk from leaf oversupply and tariff uncertainty.
The recent affirmation of the US$0.82 quarterly dividend, alongside Q2 2025 earnings growth versus the prior year, is especially relevant here, as it highlights Universal’s ongoing cash commitments while debt is refinanced and expanded. Together with the larger facility, this puts a brighter spotlight on the company’s ability to convert working capital and Ingredients investments into sustainable earnings and cash flow.
Yet investors should also be aware that if the expected oversupply of flue cured and burley tobacco persists, it could...
Read the full narrative on Universal (it's free!)
Universal's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $113.9 million earnings by 2028. This assumes revenue will decline by 0.9% per year and requires an earnings increase of about $10.5 million from $103.4 million today.
Uncover how Universal's forecasts yield a $78.00 fair value, a 45% upside to its current price.
Five members of the Simply Wall St Community value Universal between US$36.55 and US$247.02, revealing very different expectations about future prospects. You can weigh those views against the near term risk that tobacco oversupply and tariff uncertainty pressure margins and test the benefits of the new US$1.40 billion facility.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Universal - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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