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    Is InnoCare Pharma (SEHK:9969) Quietly Recasting Its Future Around Autoimmune Dermatology?

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 10:12:48
    語音播報
    • Earlier this month, InnoCare Pharma received CDE approval in China to begin a Phase II/III trial of its novel TYK2 inhibitor soficitinib for chronic spontaneous urticaria, expanding its autoimmune and dermatology pipeline.
    • This move deepens InnoCare’s push beyond oncology into chronic inflammatory skin diseases, targeting a large, under-served CSU patient population in China that requires long-term treatment.
    • We’ll now examine how advancing soficitinib into Phase II/III for chronic spontaneous urticaria may influence InnoCare Pharma’s longer-term investment narrative.

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    InnoCare Pharma Investment Narrative Recap

    To own InnoCare Pharma, you need to believe its transition from a single‑product oncology story toward a diversified oncology and autoimmune portfolio can eventually support its premium valuation, despite ongoing losses and high R&D spend. The soficitinib Phase II/III IND for chronic spontaneous urticaria adds another late‑stage autoimmune shot on goal, but it does not change that the near term hinges most on execution and uptake around already approved drugs, while pipeline breadth keeps financial and competitive risk elevated.

    The most relevant context for soficitinib’s CSU move is orelabrutinib’s progress in systemic lupus erythematosus, where Phase IIb success has already led to Phase III approval in China. Together, they show InnoCare building a second pillar in autoimmune and inflammatory diseases alongside its hematology and solid tumor assets like zurletrectinib, which may help offset its reliance on orelabrutinib but also reinforces the importance of converting late‑stage trials into sustainable revenue.

    Yet, against this expanding pipeline, investors should also be aware that InnoCare’s heavy, multi‑front R&D investment could...

    Read the full narrative on InnoCare Pharma (it's free!)

    InnoCare Pharma's narrative projects CN¥2.9 billion revenue and CN¥70.2 million earnings by 2028. This implies 30.6% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥279.1 million earnings increase from CN¥-208.9 million today.

    Uncover how InnoCare Pharma's forecasts yield a HK$19.12 fair value, a 41% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SEHK:9969 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SEHK:9969 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    One fair value estimate from the Simply Wall St Community sits at HK$19.12, contrasting with the current share price and recent pullback. At the same time, InnoCare’s broad, capital intensive pipeline heightens the risk that high R&D spending does not translate into the product success needed to support long term performance, so it makes sense to weigh several different viewpoints before forming a view.

    Explore another fair value estimate on InnoCare Pharma - why the stock might be worth just HK$19.12!

    Build Your Own InnoCare Pharma Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.