Assessing ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Valuation After Its Strong 12-Month Share Price Rally

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) has quietly put together an impressive run, with the stock up about 18% over the past month and roughly 61% over the past year, catching more investors’ attention.

See our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

That strong 12 month total shareholder return of 61 percent, alongside a roughly 45 percent year to date share price return, suggests momentum is clearly building as investors reassess ACADIA Pharmaceuticals growth prospects and risk profile at around 27 dollars per share.

If ACADIA Pharmaceuticals recent run has you looking for what else could surprise to the upside, this is a good moment to explore healthcare stocks as potential next candidates.

With ACADIA Pharmaceuticals rallying hard yet still trading just below consensus price targets, the key question now is whether the market is undervaluing its CNS pipeline or already pricing in the next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 7.4% Undervalued

With ACADIA Pharmaceuticals last closing at 27.16 dollars against a narrative fair value of 29.32 dollars, the story leans toward modest upside grounded in detailed long term cash flow assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $30.105 for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that gap between bullish and bearish targets? The narrative leans on durable double digit growth, steady margins, and a future earnings multiple that most investors would not automatically assign to a CNS focused mid cap. Curious which precise assumptions pull that fair value above today’s price, and how sensitive it is if growth cools just a little?

Result: Fair Value of $29.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside narrative could unravel if NUPLAZID’s concentration risk bites harder than expected or if key late stage trials stumble and dampen growth.

Find out about the key risks to this ACADIA Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you are not fully convinced or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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