Did Strong New Signatera ctDNA Data Just Shift Natera’s (NTRA) Investment Narrative?

• Natera recently reported that the phase III CALGB (Alliance)/SWOG 80702 trial, now published in JAMA Oncology, showed that adding celecoxib to FOLFOX chemotherapy after surgery reduced recurrence and death risk in Signatera-positive stage III colorectal cancer patients, while multiple new breast cancer studies further reinforced the prognostic power of its Signatera ctDNA assays.
• Together with a fresh MiRaDoR collaboration in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer and updated PALLAS MRD data, these results deepen Signatera’s role in guiding adjuvant treatment choices and refining recurrence risk across several major tumor types.
• We’ll now explore how this strengthened evidence that Signatera can identify patients benefiting from celecoxib may influence Natera’s investment narrative.

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Natera Investment Narrative Recap

To own Natera, you need to believe that molecular residual disease testing like Signatera will become embedded in standard oncology care, supporting sustained revenue growth despite current losses and high R&D spend. The new CALGB/SWOG 80702 data strengthen Signatera’s clinical relevance, but they do not remove the near term profitability risk from heavy investment and potential reimbursement or regulatory shifts.

Among recent updates, the PALLAS MRD results in HR+/HER2 negative breast cancer are especially relevant, as they echo the colorectal data by showing Signatera’s ability to stratify recurrence risk across large, late stage trials. Together, these datasets feed the key catalyst of broader clinical adoption and payer support for Signatera guided care, even as Natera continues to run at a loss and invests heavily in new studies.

However, despite growing validation, investors should be aware that tighter reimbursement policies or delays in new coverage decisions could...

Read the full narrative on Natera (it's free!)

Natera's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $110.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Natera's forecasts yield a $234.68 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely from US$65.39 to US$268, reflecting very different expectations. You can set those views against the central catalyst of growing clinical adoption and reimbursement for Signatera, which could have a meaningful impact on how Natera’s future performance is judged.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Natera - why the stock might be worth as much as 16% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Natera Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Natera research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Natera's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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