Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR): Valuation Check After Major Boardroom Overhaul and Leadership Reshuffle

Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) has kicked off a fresh chapter after a packed December board meeting reshaped its leadership, with Bruce Mathieson Jnr moving from chairman to CEO and Soo Kim taking the chair.

See our latest analysis for Star Entertainment Group.

The leadership shake up and Bally's backed recapitalisation have given the stock fresh momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 52.94% contrasting sharply with a still deeply negative five year total shareholder return of 95.94%. This suggests sentiment is improving, but the turnaround is far from priced in.

If this kind of recovery story has your attention, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential market leaders in the making.

Yet with the share price still near record lows, thin profits and only a small gap to analyst targets, investors face a key question: is Star genuinely undervalued or is the market already pricing in a full recovery?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.9% Undervalued

With Star Entertainment Group last closing at A$0.13 against a narrative fair value of about A$0.14, the story hinges on a difficult profitability comeback.

Roll off of significant remediation and transformation costs over the next 2 years, combined with successful execution of further cost out initiatives and restored operating licenses, is expected to improve EBITDA margins and free cash flow, directly strengthening the bottom line.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a loss making casino operator could still justify a higher value? The secret lies in assumed margin repair, cash generation and a surprisingly low future earnings multiple. Want to see how those moving parts supposedly line up by 2028?

Result: Fair Value of $0.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained regulatory pressure and unresolved licence uncertainty could derail the earnings recovery and force deeper cost cuts or dilutive capital raisings.

Find out about the key risks to this Star Entertainment Group narrative.

Build Your Own Star Entertainment Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply prefer your own homework, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Star Entertainment Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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