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    Evaluating SBI Holdings (TSE:8473) After SBI Shinsei Bank Listing and Extraordinary Gain

    Simply Wall St·12/20/2025 03:19:38
    語音播報

    SBI Holdings (TSE:8473) has just crystallized value from its banking portfolio by listing subsidiary SBI Shinsei Bank on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market while cashing in part of its stake for an extraordinary gain.

    See our latest analysis for SBI Holdings.

    Those portfolio moves come on top of SBI’s new stake in Indonesia’s Amar Bank and fresh stock option plans for employees, and the market has taken notice, with a roughly 65 percent year to date share price return and a striking multi year total shareholder return above 200 percent. Together, these developments suggest momentum is still very much intact.

    If these returns have you rethinking your opportunity set, it could be a good moment to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other fast moving ideas to watch next.

    Yet with earnings under pressure, a modest discount to analyst targets, and a far larger gap to some intrinsic value estimates, investors now face a tougher call: is SBI still mispriced or already discounting years of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 70% Undervalued

    With SBI Holdings last closing at ¥3,299 against a narrative fair value of ¥3,323, the spotlight shifts to how future earnings and margins are being modeled.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥5824.0 for SBI Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥6710.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥4730.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how modest revenue growth, thinner margins, and a higher future earnings multiple can still argue for big upside? The full narrative unpacks the numbers driving that call.

    Result: Fair Value of ¥3,323 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, record high revenues and broad based profit growth could sustain earnings momentum, which may push returns and the valuation above today’s conservative narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this SBI Holdings narrative.

    Build Your Own SBI Holdings Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own data, you can build a custom view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your SBI Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.