The price of tungsten soared 220% to a record high during the year. Does Jiaxin International (03858), which has the most flexible standard, have 10 times more room?

The “boom” in tungsten prices led the metal bull market, and Jiaxin International (03858) led the way with the “King of Elasticity” character!

According to Chinatungsten Online, tungsten prices continued to be strong this week, and prices continued to soar. The weekly price increase of major tungsten raw materials was around 12%-18%, with a cumulative increase of more than 200% during the year. Tungsten has become the metal variety with the most “ferocious” price increase in 2025.

And in the midst of this surging wave of rising tungsten prices, Jiaxin International, which is hailed by the market as the “king of flexibility in the tungsten ore price increase cycle,” has undoubtedly become the brightest “star.” After officially landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28, 2025, Jiaxin International's stock price hit a strong record high of HK$44.38 per share on December 18. Compared with the issue price of HK$10.92, the cumulative increase has exceeded 306%, fully demonstrating the market's high recognition of its value.

However, if you have a deep understanding of the logic of this round of tungsten ore price increases and the fundamentals of Jiaxin International, you can know that Jiaxin International's stock price may have just reached the “mountainside.” Looking forward to the future, as tungsten ore prices continue to strengthen and even rise further, combined with the accelerated release of Jiaxin International's own production capacity, its stock price has great potential to climb to a higher peak, and is expected to embark on a new round of value discovery.

The long-term price center of tungsten is expected to rise to 45-500,000 yuan/ton

Since July of this year, prices of chemicals, industrial raw materials and products have set off a wave of price increases, which has attracted great attention from the market. Among the many types of price increases, tungsten's performance, as the “leading pioneer” in the metal sector, is particularly impressive — not only is it leading all categories in terms of growth during the year, but it has also recently shown a strong upward momentum of acceleration.

According to the latest monitoring data from Chinatungsten Online on December 19, the price of core products in the tungsten industry chain soared to a phased high. Among them, the price of 65% of black tungsten concentrate was reported at 430,000 yuan/standard ton, up 15.3% from the beginning of the year, up 202.1% from the beginning of the year; domestic APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices rose 17.1% from the beginning of the year; furthermore, the price of tungsten powder broke through the 1,000 yuan mark, at 13.2% from the beginning of the year.

The latest rise in the price of tungsten not only refreshed the historical peak of tungsten prices in recent years, but also showed the strong momentum of its price increase with the shocking “weekly double-digit increase and annual doubling performance”. The key reasons that spurred tungsten prices to rise 200% during the year were supply-side tension and clear structural growth on the demand side.

From the supply-side perspective, domestic growth is limited. Domestic tungsten mining targets decreased by 4,000 tons year-on-year in 2025, production increases in Hunan and Jiangxi mines in the main production areas are weak, and overseas Sangdong tungsten mine production has been delayed, making it difficult for overseas growth to fill the gap.

From the demand side, demand for tungsten has increased markedly in many fields. Among them, in the photovoltaic sector, under the trend of “thinning” of silicon wafers, demand for tungsten wire to replace traditional high-carbon steel wire has surged, and the global amount of tungsten photovoltaic tungsten wire is expected to reach 12,000 tons in 2025; in the military industry and high-end manufacturing sector, data from the National Defense Bureau of Science, Technology and Industry shows that military hard alloy orders in 2025 were +42% year-on-year, and the localization rate of CNC machine tools increased to 65%, all of which significantly boosted the demand for tungsten products; in addition, the implementation of China's export restriction policy on tungsten products in February 2025 also boosted the price of overseas tungsten products.

CICC said that due to domestic effects such as declining quality and stricter standardization requirements, supply-side production contraction pressure is increasing, and at the same time, there is uncertainty about the commissioning schedule of other major overseas incremental projects, compounded by ongoing geographical conflicts and rising overseas inflationary pressure, the increase in global tungsten supply requires higher incentive prices. Therefore, it believes that tungsten prices are expected to continue to operate strongly in the short term and continue to hit new highs.

Looking at the long term, CICC believes that the tungsten price center is dominated by the relationship between supply and demand, and it is expected that the global tungsten supply and demand relationship will remain scarce, which in turn will drive the tungsten price center to continue to rise. According to tungsten metallurgy, global raw tungsten production is expected to increase from 79,500 tons to 89,900 tons from 2023 to 2028, but global demand for raw tungsten will increase from 96,200 tons to 110,000 tons. As the global tungsten supply and demand gap widens, the market expects that the long-term price center of tungsten may rise to 45-500,000 yuan/ton, and will continue until 2028.

Multiple advantages solidify the foundation of high elasticity

However, in this big cycle of tungsten ore price increases, Jiaxin International has been recognized by the market as a well-deserved “king of elasticity”. This is because it not only has the world's largest open-air tungsten mine, but also guarantees a precise pace of production capacity release and a bullish tungsten price cycle with the empowerment of shareholders of central enterprises.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Jiaxin International is a tungsten mining company rooted in Kazakhstan and focuses on developing the Bakuta tungsten project. As of June 2025, the Bakuta tungsten ore has 107 million tons of ore (grade 0.211% WO3) and 227.3 thousand tons of tungsten trioxide resources. It is the world's fourth largest tungsten ore (including open pit tungsten ore and underground tungsten ore), and is the world's largest open-pit tungsten deposit, and has the largest design tungsten ore production capacity in the world among single tungsten mines.

Unlike a simple mining developer, Jiaxin International's shareholder background provides it with a unique collaborative advantage. Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction each hold 41.65% and 15% of Jiaxin International's shares. Jiangxi Copper is one of the largest domestic tungsten smelting companies, which can prioritize the digestion of primary products from Bakuta tungsten ore and reduce sales risks; China Railway Construction dominates railway and port support construction in mining areas, reducing logistics costs by 15% to 20% compared to peers. This closed loop model of “resources+engineering+trade” allows Jiaxin International to flexibly connect with European hard alloy manufacturers through trade channels within the central enterprise system and avoid policy risks.

The “resonance” between the pace of production capacity release and the bullish tungsten price cycle is also a prominent highlight of Jiaxin International, which means that the company can enjoy the double dividend of “a sharp rise in volume and price.” In April 2025, the first phase of commercial production of the Bakuta tungsten project began. The target annual mining and mineral processing capacity for 2025 is 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore.

In the first half of 2025, Jiaxin International has processed 945,000 tons of ore, achieving a tungsten concentrate output of 1205 tons. The target ore output for the second half of the year is 1.65 million tons, and 3,638 tons of tungsten concentrate, three times that of the first half of the year. Furthermore, in the first quarter of 2027, the second phase of the project is expected to be put into operation. At that time, the target annual mining and mineral processing capacity will increase to 4.95 million tons, and the company's production capacity will be released at an accelerated pace. China Merchants Securities estimates that in 2026-2027, the expected mineral processing volume is 380/4.95 million tons, which corresponds to a tungsten concentrate production of 1.1/13,700 tons.

At the same time as production capacity is being released rapidly, the Bakuta tungsten ore project has a cost advantage, which will enable Jiaxin International's future profitability to rapidly strengthen. China Merchants Securities said that the project uses open pit mining, which has obvious cost advantages, and the company plans to transport the extracted ore from the mining site to the crushing plant through a dump truck. The crushed ore will be transported to the crushing plant's crude ore through a two-kilometer conveyor belt, thereby reducing transportation costs.

Furthermore, Kazakhstan's land use, water, electricity, gas, and labor costs are lower than in other countries where large tungsten mines are located (such as China), and the second phase of the Bakuta tungsten ore development project has been included in Kazakhstan's national strategic minerals list, and the local government provides tax incentives and infrastructure support. China Merchants Securities believes that as the production capacity of the project rises, the cost of Jiaxin International is expected to drop rapidly, which can also be supported by data.

Jiaxin International has clearly stated in its prospectus that the second phase of commercial production will install an ore sorting system in 2027. At that time, the unit operating cash cost is expected to drop drastically to 113 yuan per ton of ore and 49,000 yuan per ton of concentrate.

Or copy ten times the price of Zijin Mining in 2021

With many highlights such as the world's top resource endowments, collaborative empowerment of central enterprises, rapid release of production capacity, and outstanding future cost advantages, Jiaxin International has become a “fan” in the capital market. As early as the public sale, Jiaxin International was oversubscribed 1,200 times, frozen HK$144 billion, and achieved good results with an increase of 177.84% on the first day of listing.

More than that, in less than 4 months after listing, Jia Jiaxin International's stock price reached a record high of HK$44.38 on December 18. This is already 3 times higher than the issue price, which is enough to confirm that the capital market is optimistic about the future development of Jiaxin International.

However, if you look at it from a long-term perspective, the current stock price of Jiaxin International is only feedback on short-term price expectations for tungsten ore, and does not fully reflect its long-term intrinsic value as the most flexible investment target in the big cycle of tungsten ore price increases. The three data of production, price, and cost are the core variables that outline the long-term value of Jiaxin International. Only simple estimates can anchor the long-term true value of Jiaxin International.

In terms of production, Jiaxin International will produce 13,700 tons of concentrate in 2027; in terms of price, the market generally expects the medium- to long-term price of tungsten concentrate to be 450,000 to 500,000 yuan/ton; in terms of cost, the cost per ton of concentrate can be as low as 49,000 yuan in 2027. This means that Jiaxin International's gross profit in 2027 may reach 5.5 billion to 6 billion yuan. If the price of tungsten further exceeds expectations, it can bring more profit to Jiaxin International.

It is foreseeable that in the future, as the revaluation of resources resonates with the realisation of production capacity, Jiaxin International's stock price may be expected to replicate ten times the price of Zijin Mining in 2021. Investors can hit a low position and wait for the accelerated release of the dual dividends of cycle and growth.