Thematic guide to investments in 2026

THE next investment cycle looks less about chasing the hottest trade and more about positioning for how the world actually works in 2026. Growth does not vanish, but it becomes more selective, more uneven, and more dependent on how innovation, policy and society intersect.

As HSBC Group sees it, the way forward is one driven by technology-led productivity and selective diversification rather than a single market bet.

The group’s global chief investment officer, Willem Sels, sets the tone clearly: “We believe it is innovation – spurred by artificial intelligence (AI) – that will keep global economic growth going in 2026. Even more importantly, it will also be the main engine for earnings growth.”

That idea anchors the bank’s thematic investment approach for the year ahead.

Innovation is not treated as a narrow technology story.

Sels highlights that all the equity markets currently “overweight” are among the world’s 15 most innovative countries – led by the United States and Asia, with Europe lagging.

The emphasis is on ecosystems rather than individual breakthroughs. The themes are designed to capture where innovation is funded, regulated and scaled, rather than where it is merely invented.

This thinking underpins HSBC’s long-standing thematic framework.

“If, like us, you believe that there are solid long-term trends in place around Disruptive Technologies, our Evolving Society or Climate Action trends, you will want to incorporate those into your portfolio strategy in some way. These pillars remain familiar, but the underlying themes shift with short-term forces and policy realities,” he says.

Trends and themes

Asia features prominently in 2026 as a structural diversification play. Under the banner of “Asia in the new world order”, the focus spans data centres, innovation champions, shareholder returns and high-quality credit.

Asia’s role as the world’s technology hardware hub and a key beneficiary of AI-driven investment makes it central to the strategy, according to HSBC.

It recommends an investment approach that balances exposure to technology leaders with income-oriented assets, reflecting a deliberate barbell design.

Corporate governance reforms across Japan, China, South Korea and Singapore add momentum, encouraging higher dividends, buybacks and return on equity improvements. Income matters here not as a defensive move, but as a complement to growth in a region where valuations remain comparatively attractive.

Disruptive technologies form the second major trend, split between aerospace and security, and the evolving AI ecosystem.

According to HSBC, geopolitical realignments and security priorities drive higher defence spending, while commercial aviation continues to see strong demand as airlines modernise fleets.

At the same time, new technologies reshape space, defence and cybersecurity, opening commercial opportunities from autonomous systems to small satellites. The data tells its own story, with small satellite launches multiplying over recent years as coverage and connectivity expand.

The AI ecosystem theme extends well beyond software. It captures the physical backbone of digital intelligence: data centres, cloud infrastructure, energy equipment and cooling systems.

HSBC points to the scale of investment required, citing trillions of dollars needed globally by the end of the decade.

Rapid advances in AI models accelerate demand for processing power, while alliances and acquisitions build full-stack capabilities. Productivity gains already show up across sectors, reinforcing the earnings narrative that Sels emphasises.

Climate action emerges as the third core trend, reframed through the lens of energy security and resource resilience.

A decade after the Paris Agreement, the driver is no longer only decarbonisation but also the practical need to power AI-heavy economies securely.

Renewable energy, grid upgrades and localised power solutions become strategic assets as data centres cluster around reliable energy sources.

Alongside this, biodiversity and the circular economy gain prominence. Regulation, particularly in Europe, pushes ecosystem restoration and sustainable production, while new business models aim to reduce waste and dependency on scarce resources.

HSBC highlights that the fourth trend, evolving society, focuses on social empowerment, well-being and changing consumption habits.

Demographics and technology combine to shift spending towards wellness, transparency and subscription-based services, it notes, adding that Millennials and Gen-Z consumers prioritise health, ethics and experience, reshaping brand strategies and revenue models.

Streaming and subscriptions reflect this preference for access over ownership, while social empowerment themes capture education, healthcare access and inclusive growth.

Diversification becomes explicit in the fifth trend: seeking diverse returns as US rate cuts end.

HSBC recognises the risk of portfolios becoming overly concentrated in interest-rate-sensitive growth themes.

Sels acknowledges this directly, noting concerns around valuation and correlation: “We recognise, however, the risks of excessively concentrating on themes that are very correlated.”

The response is to add cyclical and value-oriented exposures such as North American re-industrialisation, global financials and merger-driven strategies.

These themes aim to benefit from earnings growth, capital expenditure and corporate activity rather than multiple expansion.

Income through active credit selection rounds out the picture. With less scope for capital gains in bonds if rate cuts slow, the focus shifts to carry, quality and medium-duration exposure.

Emerging market local currency debt and investment-grade credit in Asia provide diversification from US monetary policy, while currency variety adds another layer of balance.

Across all five trends, implementation matters as much as selection. HSBC stresses the role of public and private markets, alongside hedge funds, to manage volatility and access value.

As Sels puts it, “It’s by adopting all of these strategies that we manage volatility while tapping into exciting trends to improve the portfolio’s long-term return potential.”