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    What Takeda Pharmaceutical (TSE:4502)'s Phase 3 Win For Oral Psoriasis Drug Means For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 17:11:03
    語音播報
    • In mid-December 2025, Takeda reported positive topline data from two pivotal Phase 3 trials of its next‑generation oral TYK2 inhibitor zasocitinib in adults with moderate‑to‑severe plaque psoriasis, showing superiority to placebo and an active comparator on key skin‑clearance endpoints.
    • Because zasocitinib is a once‑daily oral pill that achieved high rates of near‑complete and complete skin clearance, it could reshape treatment options in plaque psoriasis if successfully approved.
    • We’ll now examine how this Phase 3 success for zasocitinib, a potential new oral option in plaque psoriasis, affects Takeda’s investment narrative.

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    Takeda Pharmaceutical Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Takeda, you need to believe its late stage pipeline can offset pressure from loss of exclusivity, pricing reform and a heavy debt load. Zasocitinib’s Phase 3 success slightly strengthens that case but does not yet change the near term focus on VYVANSE erosion and the risk that key launches and filings slip or underperform in crowded autoimmune and rare disease markets.

    The zasocitinib news sits alongside other late stage programs like rusfertide for polycythemia vera, where 52 week VERIFY data support durability and align with the catalyst of multiple innovative launches over the next few years. Together, these assets are central to the idea that Takeda can move past one off earnings noise and high leverage by converting its pipeline into diversified, higher margin revenue streams.

    Yet, despite the strong psoriasis data, investors should be aware that rising R&D costs and the risk of late stage pipeline underperformance could...

    Read the full narrative on Takeda Pharmaceutical (it's free!)

    Takeda Pharmaceutical's narrative projects ¥4,696.5 billion revenue and ¥339.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 1.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about ¥202.6 billion from ¥136.9 billion today.

    Uncover how Takeda Pharmaceutical's forecasts yield a ¥4946 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSE:4502 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:4502 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from ¥4,946 to a much higher ¥12,447, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that wide range, the promise of zasocitinib and other late stage assets sits alongside real concerns about generic pressure and pipeline execution, so it is worth weighing several contrasting opinions before deciding where Takeda fits in your portfolio.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Takeda Pharmaceutical - why the stock might be worth just ¥4946!

    Build Your Own Takeda Pharmaceutical Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.