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    Is UBS’s Côte d’Ivoire Focus Reframing Murphy Oil’s (MUR) Risk‑Reward Profile in Deepwater Exploration?

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 13:19:30
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    • Earlier in December 2025, UBS reiterated its Neutral rating on Murphy Oil while highlighting the company’s preparation for a major 2026 exploration program across Côte d’Ivoire, Vietnam, and the Gulf of Mexico, alongside recent outperformance versus production guidance and lower operating costs.
    • The broker’s focus on Murphy Oil’s high risk/reward Côte d’Ivoire exploration campaign underscores how frontier deepwater success could materially reshape the company’s long-term resource base and earnings mix.
    • We’ll now examine how UBS’s emphasis on Murphy Oil’s upcoming high risk/reward Côte d’Ivoire wells could influence the company’s broader investment narrative.

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    Murphy Oil Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Murphy Oil, you have to be comfortable with a pure-play upstream story that leans heavily on offshore exploration and execution, with cash flows tied closely to oil prices. The latest UBS update does not materially change that picture, but it does sharpen the near term focus on the 2026 exploration program in Côte d’Ivoire as a key catalyst and on the inherent exploration and capital intensity risks that come with it.

    Against this backdrop, Murphy’s Q3 2025 results are particularly relevant, as they combine production outperformance and lower operating costs with a swing to a small net loss of US$2.97 million on US$732.99 million of revenue. For investors, that contrast between operational progress and more volatile earnings frames how frontier deepwater spending and any future cost surprises could affect margins, free cash flow, and ultimately the appeal of the Côte d’Ivoire program as a value driver.

    Yet alongside the upside of new offshore discoveries, investors should be aware of the increased exposure to high cost, lumpy deepwater spending that...

    Read the full narrative on Murphy Oil (it's free!)

    Murphy Oil's narrative projects $3.1 billion revenue and $452.6 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Murphy Oil's forecasts yield a $28.93 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MUR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MUR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Seven Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Murphy Oil span roughly US$1.24 to US$36.29 per share, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. When you weigh those opinions against the company’s heavy reliance on high risk offshore exploration, it underlines why understanding several different viewpoints on Murphy’s future cash flows really matters.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Murphy Oil - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Murphy Oil Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.