Markets bet on whether one million Americans will receive payments from tariff revenue before 2026

Kalshi has reported 536,425 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 11% chance for "Before 2026", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 13% probability.

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,363,960 transactions since it was first opened on November 09, 2025. There are 387,508 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 23,512,165 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

• When will marijuana be rescheduled? (24h volume: 1025629)
• Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? (24h volume: 536425)
• Nicolás Maduro out this year? (24h volume: 220975)
• Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2026 meeting? (24h volume: 143187)
• Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025? (24h volume: 118349)
• Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 118174)
• Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 106681)
• Will Trump release any documents about Epstein's associates before Dec 20, 2025? (24h volume: 93140)
• Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? (24h volume: 92423)
• Will Kash Patel leave the Trump Administration this year? (24h volume: 81132)