Howden Joinery Group (LON:HWDN) shareholders notch a 17% CAGR over 3 years, yet earnings have been shrinking

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, the Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) share price is up 47% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 27% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 9.6% in the last year, including dividends.

Since the stock has added UK£167m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last three years, Howden Joinery Group failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 5.8% (annualized).

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We severely doubt anyone is particularly impressed with the modest 1.1% three-year revenue growth rate. While we don't have an obvious theory to explain the share price rise, a closer look at the data might be enlightening.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Howden Joinery Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Howden Joinery Group, it has a TSR of 60% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Howden Joinery Group shareholders are up 9.6% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 7% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Howden Joinery Group .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.