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    Assessing Nutrien (TSX:NTR) Valuation After U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Belarusian Potash

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 20:48:02
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    The U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash is shaking up fertilizer markets, and Nutrien (TSX:NTR) is right in the crosshairs as investors reassess future pricing power and margins.

    See our latest analysis for Nutrien.

    That backdrop lands on a stock that has already been in recovery mode, with a 90 day share price return of 9.25 percent and a strong year to date share price return of 30.23 percent. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return remains slightly negative and the 5 year total shareholder return of 67.39 percent shows the longer term compounding story is still intact. This suggests that recent momentum is building, but investors are now reassessing how much of that optimism is justified as global potash supply opens up.

    If this shake up in fertilizer markets has you rethinking your exposure, it could be a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover other compelling ideas beyond Nutrien.

    With Nutrien trading modestly below analyst targets and at a sizable discount to some intrinsic value estimates, the core question now is whether this cyclical rebound is still mispriced or if the market already sees the growth coming.

    Most Popular Narrative: 3.9% Undervalued

    With Nutrien last closing at CA$85 and the most followed narrative pointing to fair value around CA$88.43, the valuation gap looks modest but meaningful in a sector facing fresh uncertainty.

    Operational cost reductions and portfolio optimization: Ongoing SG&A and capex reductions, accelerated cost savings programs, and modernization of distribution structures (especially in Brazil and North America) are already increasing adjusted EBITDA and will structurally enhance net margins and free cash flow generation into 2026.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how steady growth assumptions, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple combine to justify that price tag? The narrative explains the full rationale behind this valuation.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$88.43 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, tighter environmental regulations and faster adoption of regenerative farming could curb synthetic fertilizer demand and challenge Nutrien's pricing power and growth assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this Nutrien narrative.

    Build Your Own Nutrien Narrative

    If you are not fully convinced by this view or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Nutrien research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more high conviction ideas?

    Before you move on, lock in your next opportunity by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover stocks that match your strategy, not the crowd’s.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.