Heineken Holding Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound in 2025

• If you are wondering whether Heineken Holding is still worth a spot in your portfolio at today’s price, you are not alone. This article is going to unpack exactly what you are paying for.
• The shares are up 4.5% over the last week and 7.5% year to date, but that strength comes after a tougher few years, with the stock still down 6.9% over three years and 8.5% over five.
• Recent price moves sit against a backdrop of Heineken continuing to push its premiumisation strategy and expand its global footprint, while navigating shifting consumer tastes and higher input costs. Alongside that, the group has been refining its portfolio and investing in brand strength, which investors often read as a signal of confidence in long term cash generation.
• On our checks, Heineken Holding scores a 4/6 valuation rating. This suggests the market may be underestimating parts of its fundamentals. We will walk through what different valuation approaches say about that, before finishing with a more intuitive way to think about what the stock is really worth.

Heineken Holding delivered 10.2% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Beverage industry.

Approach 1: Heineken Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today’s value. For Heineken Holding, this is done using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach.

The latest twelve month free cash flow stands at about €2.79 billion, and analysts expect this to grow modestly over time. Simply Wall St uses analyst estimates where available and then extrapolates further, with projected free cash flow reaching roughly €3.28 billion by 2035. Those future figures are discounted back to today to reflect risk and the time value of money.

On this basis, the DCF model used in the article produces an intrinsic value of around €297.63 per share. This is compared with the current share price in the article and described as a steep 79.1% discount to the estimated fair value, which is presented as suggesting that the market may be heavily underpricing Heineken Holding’s long term cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED (per the article’s DCF model)

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Heineken Holding is undervalued by 79.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 915 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Heineken Holding.

Approach 2: Heineken Holding Price vs Earnings

For a mature, profitable business like Heineken Holding, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are paying for each euro of current profit. In general, higher growth and lower risk justify a higher PE multiple, while slower growth or more uncertainty usually mean a lower, more conservative PE is appropriate.

Heineken Holding currently trades on a PE of about 18.8x. That sits above the Beverage industry average of roughly 17.4x, but below the broader peer group average of around 20.8x, suggesting the market is assigning it a mid range valuation relative to similar companies. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 22.4x, its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable PE should be given the company’s earnings growth profile, margins, size, industry positioning and specific risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for Heineken Holding’s own fundamentals rather than assuming it should look like the average company. With the Fair Ratio of 22.4x sitting above the current 18.8x, this lens points to the market pricing the shares below what their earnings profile might justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Heineken Holding Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you write the story behind the numbers by linking your view of Heineken Holding’s brands, markets and risks to a concrete forecast for its future revenue, earnings and margins. This then flows through to a Fair Value you can compare with today’s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. It also automatically updates as new information like earnings releases or news arrives so your view is always current. Narratives also make it clear how two investors can reasonably disagree. For example, one bullish Narrative might assume faster premium growth, resilient margins and a Fair Value near €107 per share. Another, more cautious Narrative might focus on volume pressure, regulatory risks and slower digital progress that supports a much lower fair value closer to today’s mid €50s price.

Do you think there's more to the story for Heineken Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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