Blue Bird (BLBD): Revisiting Valuation After a Recent Pullback and Strong Multi‑Year Shareholder Returns

Blue Bird (BLBD) has quietly outperformed much of the market this year, and its recent pullback over the past 3 months is giving investors a fresh chance to revisit the story.

See our latest analysis for Blue Bird.

Behind that recent 3 month share price pullback, Blue Bird still carries a strong year to date share price return and a standout multi year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is cooling but the longer term growth story remains very much intact.

If Blue Bird has you rethinking where the next big mover might come from, it could be worth exploring auto manufacturers as another way to find transport names with interesting trajectories.

With double digit earnings growth, a sizeable discount to analyst targets and shares still well below some intrinsic value estimates, is Blue Bird quietly undervalued here, or has the market already priced in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.7% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set meaningfully above the last close, the story presents Blue Bird as a quality name whose rerating may not be finished yet.

Advances in Blue Bird's operational efficiency including automation and lean manufacturing investments, as well as the construction of a new plant are anticipated to improve cost structures and drive sustainable margin improvement and expanded net earnings over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest revenue growth, rising margins, and a lower future earnings multiple still point to upside? The full narrative lays out the math.

Result: Fair Value of $63.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside depends on continued policy support and successful execution, with any rollback of incentives or manufacturing missteps quickly undermining the bullish case.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Bird narrative.

Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

If you see this story differently or want to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete narrative in just minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Blue Bird.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop at Blue Bird when the market is full of opportunities; use the Simply Wall St Screener to explore additional potential investments that match your criteria.

• Look for possible market mispricings by targeting companies trading below their cash flow value with these 916 undervalued stocks based on cash flows and position yourself for potential sentiment shifts.
• Focus on secular themes by examining innovators in machine learning and automation through these 25 AI penny stocks and monitor how these areas develop over time.
• Support your income objectives by considering companies with a history of paying dividends using these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% and review yields alongside other fundamental factors.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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