Dongwu Securities: Domestic sales and exports of heavy trucks resonate, and the boom continues to improve

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that domestic sales of heavy trucks in November met the forecast, and wholesale and exports exceeded that forecast; according to the bank's estimates, the total inventory coefficient of the industry in November was 1.8, which is at a reasonable level; by use, construction vehicles performed better than logistics vehicles in November. The bank expects wholesale sales of heavy trucks to be around 115,000 units in December '25, an increase of 40% over the previous year. The bank is optimistic about the sector's market throughout the year, stimulated by the National Four Policy.

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

November sales volume: Domestic sales are in line with this forecast, and wholesale and export sales exceed the forecast

Total industry volume: Domestic sales in November were in line with this forecast, and wholesale and exports exceeded this forecast. 1) Production volume: 114,000 heavy truck units in November, +84.4%/+9.8%, respectively; 2) Wholesale: 113,000 heavy truck wholesale sales in November, +65.4%/+6.6%, respectively; 3) Shanghai Insurance: November heavy truck terminal sales volume was 77,000 units, +34.3%/+9.6% year-on-month, respectively; 4) Exports: November heavy truck export sales volume was 33,000 units, +44.0%/+0.7%, respectively; 5) Inventory industry overall inventory in November, of which the enterprise inventory was +0.08 million Vehicles, channel inventory +0.34 million vehicles. According to the bank's estimates, the total inventory coefficient of the industry in November was 1.8, which is at a reasonable level.

Industry structure: In terms of use, construction vehicles performed better than logistics vehicles in November compared to the same period last month. In November, construction vehicle terminal sales were 0.85 million units, +41.2%/+13.1% year over month; logistics vehicle sales volume was 68,200 units, +33.5%/+8.9% month on month. Construction vehicles and logistics vehicles accounted for 11.1%/88.9% respectively in November. Construction vehicles accounted for +0.5/+0.3 pct, respectively, and logistics vehicles accounted for 0.5/-0.6 pct, respectively. In terms of heavy natural gas trucks, 19,000 heavy natural gas trucks were sold in November, +70.6%/-8.1%, respectively, and the penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 25.3%, and +5.38/ -4.87pct, respectively. The penetration rate of heavy natural gas trucks among tractors in November was 40.1%, +2.84/-8.33pct compared with the same period last month, respectively.

November pattern: Futian's domestic sales share increased year on year, and Jiefang/Futian export share increased year on month

Vehicle pattern: 1) Terminal: Domestic Liberation, Dongfeng/Sinotruk, Shaanxi Heavy Truck/Foton terminals sold 21.1%/18.0%/16.9%/11.0%/12.4% in November 2025, respectively, -2.6/-2.7/-1.0/+0.8/+2.0pct compared to the full year of '24, and -0.4/+0.1/-1.4pct compared to October, respectively. 2) Exports: Domestic Liberation, Dongfeng/Heavy Duty Truck/Shaanxi Heavy Truck/Foton's export market share in November 2025 was 21.2%/9.3%/45.2%/16.2%/5.7%, +2.0/+0.2/+4.3/-5.5/+1.7pct compared to the full year of 24, and +2.3/+0.0/-0.6/-1.8/+0.2pct from October, respectively.

November pattern: Weichai still ranks first in terms of share

Engine pattern: Weichai still ranks first in terms of share. 1) Overall: At the end of the year, Weichai/Cummins/Xichai/Sinotruk/Yuchai had a market share of 17.4%/15.6%/14.6%/9.2%/11.1%, respectively, compared with the full year of 24, -10.1/-2.9/-0.5/-2.0/ -2.4pct, and -3.1/-0.1/-0.3pct compared to October; 2) Weichai: In November, the number of Weichai terminals installed was 13,000, +11.8%/-7.1%. Looking at car companies, Weichai had 46.5%/43.2%/19.6% support rates in Shaanxi Heavy Truck/Heavy Truck/Jiefang in November, -11.6/-3.8/-3.4pct compared to October, and -23.9/-15.0/-10.9pct for the full year of '24, respectively. By fuel type, Weichai's diesel/natural gas engine market share in November was 11.16%/51.76%, respectively, compared to -6.14/ -7.64pct for the whole of '24, and -0.52/-0.24pct compared to October, respectively.

Risk warning: The recovery of the domestic heavy truck industry fell short of expectations, and the rise in natural gas prices exceeded expectations.