NBCC (India) Limited's (NSE:NBCC) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 50.3x NBCC (India) Limited (NSE:NBCC) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in India have P/E ratios under 25x and even P/E's lower than 14x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, NBCC (India) has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, NBCC (India) would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 26% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 188% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 17% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 20% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that NBCC (India) is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On NBCC (India)'s P/E

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of NBCC (India)'s analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for NBCC (India) you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on NBCC (India), explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.