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    United Natural Foods (UNFI): Revisiting Valuation After Investor Day EBITDA Targets and Analyst Outlook Upgrades

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 00:37:48
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    United Natural Foods (UNFI) put fresh numbers behind its long term story at its 2025 investor day, outlining steady sales growth and a significantly higher EBITDA goal that has analysts revisiting their outlook.

    See our latest analysis for United Natural Foods.

    The stock has pulled back, with a 1 month share price return of minus 14.9 percent after a strong run. However, its year to date share price return of 19.1 percent and 5 year total shareholder return of 107.3 percent suggest longer term momentum and renewed confidence around execution.

    If UNFI’s reset has you thinking about what else could rerate on better execution, now is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With shares trading below average analyst targets and management pitching a step change in profitability, investors now face a key question: Is UNFI a value opportunity in disguise, or has the market already priced in its turnaround?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 17.3% Undervalued

    With United Natural Foods closing at $32.86 versus a narrative fair value near $39.75, the valuation case leans on a detailed, long term earnings rebuild.

    The continued consolidation among food retailers and the expansion of differentiated, specialty, and e-commerce grocery models increases the value of scaled, flexible distributors like UNFI. This allows the company to win new business and further outpace industry benchmarks, driving incremental revenue and EBITDA growth as the sector evolves.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin lift would justify that valuation gap, and how future earnings power is modeled quarter by quarter? The narrative breaks down the planned profit recovery, the assumed shift from losses to sustained earnings, and the valuation multiple needed to support that higher price. Curious how those moving parts add up to today’s fair value.

    Result: Fair Value of $39.75 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, the recent cyber breach and the loss of the Key Food contract highlight how execution missteps could quickly undermine the optimistic turnaround narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this United Natural Foods narrative.

    Build Your Own United Natural Foods Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own numbers, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your United Natural Foods research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If UNFI has sparked your interest, do not stop there. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover fresh, data driven opportunities before others move first.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.