According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the number of new non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in the US in November 2025 both exceeded expectations. The number of new non-farm payrolls dropped sharply in October due to the fact that some US federal government employees who accepted the “delayed resignation” program dropped out of their payrolls, causing government departments to drag down overall readings. Powell gave an “official discount” to non-farm farmers, and the addition of non-farm payrolls in November is not strong. The “low recruitment” continued, but the “low layoffs” changed in October and November. However, judging from the number of times US stock companies mentioned “Job Cuts” in December, the scale of layoffs has not worsened. If the unemployment rate does not continue to rise in December, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will still consider the policy interest rate “well balanced.” CITIC Securities maintains its previous view. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate cuts in January next year, and the remaining two interest rate meetings with Powell as chairman may cut interest rates by 25 bps.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the number of new non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in the US in November 2025 both exceeded expectations. The number of new non-farm payrolls dropped sharply in October due to the fact that some US federal government employees who accepted the “delayed resignation” program dropped out of their payrolls, causing government departments to drag down overall readings. Powell gave an “official discount” to non-farm farmers, and the addition of non-farm payrolls in November is not strong. The “low recruitment” continued, but the “low layoffs” changed in October and November. However, judging from the number of times US stock companies mentioned “Job Cuts” in December, the scale of layoffs has not worsened. If the unemployment rate does not continue to rise in December, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will still consider the policy interest rate “well balanced.” CITIC Securities maintains its previous view. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate cuts in January next year, and the remaining two interest rate meetings with Powell as chairman may cut interest rates by 25 bps.