Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL): Reassessing Valuation After Major Debt Restructuring and Regulatory Tailwinds

Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL) just overhauled its balance sheet by redeeming its 2026 senior secured notes and lining up a new 10.5% 2030 debt deal, and investors are reassessing the stock.

See our latest analysis for Trulieve Cannabis.

The refinancing news comes on the back of a sharp turnaround in sentiment, with a 7 day share price return of about 61 percent and a 30 day share price return near 75 percent. However, the 5 year total shareholder return is still deeply negative, suggesting momentum is rebuilding from a low base rather than peaking late in a cycle.

If this kind of rebound has you thinking about where else capital is rotating, it might be a smart moment to scan other regulated health names through healthcare stocks.

With the stock still trading well below analyst targets despite a powerful rally, the big question now is whether Trulieve remains undervalued after its debt reset or if the market is already pricing in a multiyear growth recovery.

Most Popular Narrative: 31.7% Undervalued

Compared with Trulieve Cannabis's last close at CA$12.88, the most followed narrative points to materially higher long term value based on margin recovery and modest growth.

The company's successful expansion of branded product lines, such as Modern Flower, Roll One, and new THC beverage offerings, both through proprietary development and partnerships, is expected to strengthen brand equity, boost customer loyalty, and support recurring revenues and higher margins in a market that is increasingly valuing differentiated products.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how slow top line growth can still justify a big valuation gap? The narrative leans on a dramatic earnings swing and a punchy future profit multiple. Want to see how those moving parts combine into a premium fair value case?

Result: Fair Value of $18.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this thesis depends heavily on smooth regulatory reform and stable Florida demand, and setbacks in either could quickly undermine the bullish valuation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Trulieve Cannabis narrative.

Build Your Own Trulieve Cannabis Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily build a custom thesis in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trulieve Cannabis research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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