Why SNDL (SNDL) Is Up 12.3% After Renewing Buybacks Amid US Cannabis Rescheduling Hopes

• Recently, SNDL Inc. renewed its share repurchase program of up to C$100 million and saw sentiment strengthen after reports that the Trump administration may push to reclassify marijuana to Schedule III in the US, a move that could ease tax and financing constraints across the cannabis industry.
• Although SNDL remains primarily focused on Canada, shifting expectations around US federal cannabis policy are increasingly influencing how investors view its long-term optionality and capital allocation decisions.
• Now we'll explore how renewed share buybacks, set against potential US cannabis rescheduling, may influence SNDL's pre-existing investment narrative.

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SNDL Investment Narrative Recap

To own SNDL, you need to believe its mix of Canadian cannabis, liquor retail and international exports can eventually translate improving operations into sustainable cash generation, despite ongoing losses and volatile sector sentiment. The renewed C$100 million buyback and U.S. rescheduling chatter have lifted the stock in the short term, but they do not change the core near term catalyst of turning operating gains into consistent free cash flow, or the key risk that continued investment outpaces the growth it is meant to support.

The new normal course issuer bid, which allows SNDL to repurchase up to 24,500,000 shares through November 2026, is the announcement most closely tied to this latest move in the share price. It directly intersects with the existing catalyst of a strong balance sheet by signaling that excess capital is still being directed toward equity reduction while management continues to fund international expansion, Canadian retail integration and potential future optionality around U.S. exposure.

Yet beneath the excitement around buybacks and U.S. policy headlines, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on SNDL (it's free!)

SNDL's narrative projects CA$1.1 billion revenue and CA$250.6 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how SNDL's forecasts yield a $4.76 fair value, a 148% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate SNDL’s fair value between US$1.09 and US$10.21, showing how far opinions can stretch. When you set those views against SNDL’s continued negative free cash flow and investment heavy growth plans, it becomes clear why exploring several perspectives on the company’s execution risk and balance sheet strength matters.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on SNDL - why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!

Build Your Own SNDL Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SNDL research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SNDL research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SNDL's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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