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    Should Hormel Foods’ (HRL) Justin’s Ownership Shift Require Action From Long-Term Investors?

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 16:14:02
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    • In December 2025, Hormel Foods and Forward Consumer Partners completed a partnership for the Justin's® brand, with Justin's now operating as a standalone company owned 51% by Forward and 49% by Hormel, led by returning founder Justin Gold as advisor and former CEO Peter Burns as chief executive.
    • This move reshapes Hormel's portfolio by shifting Justin's into a more focused, growth-oriented ownership structure while keeping Hormel financially invested and represented on the board.
    • Next, we’ll examine how transferring majority ownership of Justin's while retaining a significant stake could reshape Hormel’s long-term investment narrative.

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    Hormel Foods Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Hormel, you need to believe its core protein brands and modernization efforts can rebuild earnings after a tough stretch of margin pressure and underperformance. The Justin's partnership looks more like portfolio fine tuning than a near term earnings catalyst, so the biggest swing factor remains how effectively Hormel can manage commodity and pricing volatility in 2026, rather than this single transaction. For now, the Justin's move does not materially change that risk profile.

    The most relevant recent update alongside the Justin's news is Hormel's 2026 guidance, which calls for US$12.2 billion to US$12.5 billion in net sales and GAAP EPS of US$1.29 to US$1.39. That outlook sits against a backdrop of compressed margins and earnings pressure in 2025, so investors watching the Justin's partnership may want to view it as one piece of a broader effort to support long term profitability rather than a near term fix.

    Yet behind Hormel’s portfolio moves, investors should be aware of how prolonged commodity inflation and slower pricing pass through could...

    Read the full narrative on Hormel Foods (it's free!)

    Hormel Foods' narrative projects $13.0 billion revenue and $952.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $197.7 million earnings increase from $754.5 million.

    Uncover how Hormel Foods' forecasts yield a $27.25 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HRL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    HRL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Hormel’s fair value between US$24.36 and US$47.20, reflecting a wide spread of personal models and expectations. As you weigh those views, remember that ongoing commodity cost volatility and the risk of slower price pass through remain central to Hormel’s ability to improve margins and earnings over time.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Hormel Foods - why the stock might be worth just $24.36!

    Build Your Own Hormel Foods Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.