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    Should Nvidia’s China Chip Demand And Nemotron 3 Moves Require Action From NVIDIA (NVDA) Investors?

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 13:13:42
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    • In recent days, Nvidia has rolled out its Nemotron 3 open-source AI models, moved to acquire SchedMD, and seen strong post-approval demand from Chinese customers for its H200 chips, potentially prompting a production ramp.
    • Together, these moves deepen Nvidia’s AI software and infrastructure ecosystem while reopening a sizeable China market channel that had been constrained by export rules.
    • We’ll now examine how Nemotron 3’s open models and ecosystem tools could influence Nvidia’s long-term investment narrative and growth assumptions.

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    NVIDIA Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Nvidia, you need to believe AI data center spending remains elevated and Nvidia can defend its GPU and software leadership even as customers explore alternatives. The latest Nemotron 3 launch and SchedMD acquisition reinforce Nvidia’s full stack approach, while renewed H200 access to China supports the key near term demand catalyst. However, the China opportunity still depends on shifting export and import approvals, so the core geopolitical risk to that US$50 billion market remains very much in play.

    Among the recent updates, Nemotron 3 stands out as most relevant. By releasing efficient open models, safety datasets, and NeMo tools on platforms like GitHub and Hugging Face, Nvidia is deepening the AI software layer that wraps around its GPUs. That could strengthen adoption of its hardware and CUDA ecosystem just as hyperscalers and large enterprises ramp AI infrastructure and test their own chips, an important backdrop for any production increase tied to H200 demand in China.

    But while Nemotron 3 and China H200 demand look encouraging, investors should also be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on NVIDIA (it's free!)

    NVIDIA's narrative projects $337.2 billion revenue and $187.9 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how NVIDIA's forecasts yield a $250.39 fair value, a 42% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    NVDA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NVDA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    409 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$104 to US$341, showing how far apart views on Nvidia’s worth can be. Against that wide range, the key question many are weighing is whether Nvidia’s China exposure and export license uncertainty could cap the very AI data center growth that underpins its recent catalysts.

    Explore 409 other fair value estimates on NVIDIA - why the stock might be worth as much as 93% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own NVIDIA Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.