Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Intraday rumors suggest that taxes are bad, technology stocks are weak, and smart driving is showing strong performance

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Weakness is just that. It needs to be stimulated. Once again, we have entered an empty window period. Without good expectations, the two markets can only continue to seek support. Hong Kong stocks jumped lower today, closing down 1.54%.

The current problem is that, instead of being beneficial, there are too many disadvantages. Yesterday, I talked about Southeast Asian countries' difficult choices when trade is falling into a big power game. Another recent issue is Venezuela in South America. Ship monitoring data shows that after the US seized a ship carrying Venezuelan crude oil, a tanker carrying Russian naphtha for the Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA, and at least four supertankers that originally planned to load crude oil in Venezuela turned around one after another. Data shows that since last week, pressure from the US has almost paralyzed Venezuela's oil exports. Looking at it now, the purpose of the United States is very clear. Basically, it will not end up attacking Venezuela. Instead, it will mainly block maritime transportation routes, causing its oil to not be sold. Then the internal regime faltered, supported the pro-American forces to come to power, and ultimately control its oil resources. Behind this is still a precise crackdown on our Belt and Road, RMB oil settlement, and huge investments in Venezuela.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its last interest rate decision for the year. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise short-term interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on Friday. This is the second rate hike in the year, which will bring Japan's interest rate to the highest level in the past 30 years; Japan's interest rate hike is also a recent disturbance, and this shortfall continues to weaken.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Japanese side “squeezes toothpaste” and “buries nails” on critical issues, misunderstood the situation, and the Chinese side firmly opposes it. Gold rose a bit yesterday, but the latest important talks between US officials and Ukrainian President Zelensky to end the war made progress, and gold pulled back again today. Zijin Gold International (02259) fell 6%.

There is another bad rumor today: a message “involving relevant high-tech company tax decisions” is circulating among brokerage researchers, causing market tension. This tax should not be one-size-fits-all; it itself is dynamically adjusted. The policy should be biased towards high-tech industries such as chips, artificial intelligence, and commercial aerospace, but others may be adjusted, and the overall impact should not be significant. Technology stocks have recently been affected by the weakening of US stocks; they themselves are weak.

The hot topic of the market is mainly the smart driving section mentioned yesterday. L3 class models with conditional autonomous driving admission will be tested on the road in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing. If it works well, it will be promoted nationwide. The main varieties fermented in the market are Zhejiang Shibao (01057): its wire-controlled steering technology can be adapted to L3+ autonomous driving scenarios, and this technology has been targeted by many mainstream automakers, in line with the industry's explosive trend, and has become a core beneficiary of favorable policies. The fundamentals are also good. Quarterly revenue and net profit both increased by more than 30%, and operating cash flow surged 40 times, surging nearly 13% today;

Another type of unmanned logistics vehicle innovation (02431): The core point is that its unmanned logistics vehicle has taken the lead in implementing a closed commercial L4 business scenario. In terms of orders, it has formally reached a cooperation with Hunan Xiangjiang Smart's wholly-owned subsidiary to deliver 100 unmanned logistics vehicles and supporting software systems by the end of 2026; reached a business cooperation with Shanghai Master to finalize an order for 500 Xiaozhu T5 unmanned logistics vehicles, and officially start delivery in January 2026; established strategic cooperation with Xingeo and Bing Cargo to jointly complete 800 logistics vehicles that meet vehicle standards and are competitive in the unmanned market Design, production and delivery. Currently, the stock is at the bottom. A huge amount was released today, indicating that some capital is actively bottoming out. Today, it has risen nearly 9%.

The consumer direction continues to be catalyzed. The National Development and Reform Commission: Firmly implements a strategy to expand domestic demand, which mentions strengthening inclusive policies that directly reach consumers and increasing government funding for people's livelihood security expenses. The main speculation on A-shares is supermarket retail. The Hong Kong stock side has Red Star Macalline (01528): the company has vigorously promoted various strategic plans such as 3+ Star Ecology and actively adjusted the layout of shopping malls. Shopping malls have expanded various business formats such as home appliances, home improvement, new energy vehicles, and restaurants from the home category. In the future, the company will also focus on youthful transformation and introduce more diverse business formats, including innovative business formats such as two-dimensional themed home furnishing centers, trendy design zones, living solution centers for young people living alone, and pet-friendly home experience zones. Of course, to go further, we need to be catalyzed by performance or benefits such as restructuring. Today's increase is over 2%. It can also be observed that Gaoxin Retail (06809) is currently at the bottom of its transformation.

Looking at the domestic demand sector, the overall trend of the aviation industry is quite impressive, because judging from the exchange rate, oil prices, and its own performance, China Eastern Airlines Co., Ltd. (00670) issued an announcement that the company's passenger capacity investment (in usable seat kilometers) increased by 6.51% year on year in November 2025; passenger turnover (in terms of passenger carrier kilometers) increased 10.35% year on year; passenger occupancy rate was 87.37%, up 3.04 percentage points year on year. In November 2025, cargo and mail turnover (measured in tons and kilometers carried by cargo and mail) increased 13.30% year-on-year. Other types, such as China Southern Airlines (01055) and Air China (00753), all increased by more than 1.5%.

In the real estate direction, Vanke (02202) finally took a breath. On December 15, Vanke Enterprise (02202) announced the progress of the guarantee, revealing that the holding subsidiary's previous HK$1.05 billion loan applied to the bank will be extended for another year. Vanke's holding subsidiary will continue to separately guarantee the corresponding loan through credit guarantees, equity pledges, and asset collateral. Today's increase is close to 3%, but there is no movement in other real estate properties.

Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the US will release the November non-farm payrolls report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists expect the US will add 50,000 new non-farm payrolls in November, and the unemployment rate will be 4.5%. Let's take a look at how the data is at that time. The basic judgment is that the data should not be too good or too bad; I understand the reason. Otherwise it's thunder again.

[Section Focus]

On December 16, according to the Ministry of Commerce's website, the Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation against imports of related pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union. Among them, it is mentioned that according to the provisions of Article 38 of the Anti-dumping Regulations, the Ministry of Commerce proposed the imposition of anti-dumping duties to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, and the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council made a decision based on the recommendation of the Ministry of Commerce. Starting December 17, 2025, anti-dumping duties will be levied on imports of pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union. The implementation period is 5 years.

This is a final ruling, and the time period is 5 years, which is very beneficial to domestic pork companies. Main varieties: COFCO Jiajiakang (01610), Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419), Wanzhou International (00288).

[Individual Stock Mining]

China Eastern Airlines (00670): Passenger occupancy rates remain strong in the off-season, and airlines will usher in a sharp rise in volume and price

On December 16, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar strengthened again. Furthermore, the three major airlines still have strong passenger occupancy rates during the off-season. The passenger occupancy rate of Eastern Airlines in November was 87.37%, up 3.04 percentage points from the previous year. The company achieved net profit of 2.03 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of the parent company. Compared with a loss of 138 million yuan in the same period last year, the company successfully turned a loss into a profit.

Comment: Fuel prices and exchange rates help airlines reduce costs, and the passenger occupancy rates of the three major airlines are still strong during the off-season. After several years of losses, the three major state-owned airlines all achieved profits in the first three quarters of this year. The company lost money for 5 years, turning a loss into a profit in the first three quarters of 2025. More importantly, it earned 3.5 billion dollars in a single quarter in Q3, an increase of 34% over the previous year. In the first three quarters, the increase in the company's passenger turnover (in terms of passenger kilometers of revenue) was significantly higher than that of domestic routes. China Eastern Airlines showed year-on-year increases of 24.16% and 6.08%, respectively. Major passenger transportation operating data such as passenger capacity investment, passenger turnover, and passenger occupancy rates of the three major airlines all showed a year-on-year upward trend. China Eastern Airlines' passenger capacity investment in September increased 3.63% year on year; passenger turnover increased 8.67% year on year; passenger occupancy rate was 87.57%, up 4.06 percentage points year on year.

China Eastern Airlines continued to gain strength in the international market this year, opening and encrypting new international and regional routes, becoming the domestic airline with the largest number of international destinations. In the near future, China Eastern Airlines will also open the Shanghai Pudong - Auckland - Buenos Aires route to open up a major southbound route. This route will also set a new record for the longest one-way route in the world. The company optimizes and develops the international aviation network, continues to promote transit and intermodal services, and continuously enhances its core competitiveness. Coupled with the reduction in costs brought about by falling oil prices, airline profits may increase further.

As the scope of visa-free visas continues to expand, the demand for international travel and communication is constantly being activated. Passenger occupancy rates in the industry continue to be high, and domestic and foreign routes are booming. Recently, ticket prices have been continuously adjusted, and airline unit seating capacity has been significantly restored. Oil prices and the USD/RMB exchange rate are expected to reduce cost pressure and jointly improve airline profits.