Is It Too Late to Consider Expeditors After Its Strong 2025 Share Price Surge?

• If you are wondering whether Expeditors International of Washington is still worth buying after a strong run, or if the easy money has already been made, you are not alone. That is exactly what we are going to unpack here.
• The stock has climbed 2.4% over the last week, 9.5% over the past month, and is up 37.8% year to date. It has gained 30.3% over the last year, 45.5% over three years, and 70.1% over five years, so the market clearly likes the story so far.
• Recent investor attention has focused on Expeditors role in global trade normalization and shifting supply chains, as freight markets adjust from the disruptions of the last few years. Ongoing commentary about logistics capacity, shipping rates, and the reshoring trend has helped shape expectations for how resilient the company s business model can be through different cycles.
• Despite that momentum, Expeditors only scores a 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks, suggesting the market may already be pricing in a lot of good news. Next, we will break down what that means under different valuation methods before finishing with a more intuitive way to think about what the stock is really worth.

Expeditors International of Washington scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value. For Expeditors International of Washington, the model used is a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flows available to shareholders in $.

The company generated about $924 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months, and analysts expect this to gradually increase, with projections such as roughly $778 million in 2026 and $1,081 million by 2027. Beyond the analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates cash flows further out, reaching around $1.5 billion in projected free cash flow by 2035 as growth moderates over time.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $187 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at an 18.9% discount, suggesting the market is not fully reflecting the long term cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued by 18.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 906 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expeditors International of Washington.

Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings

For a consistently profitable business like Expeditors International of Washington, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk can justify trading on higher PE multiples, while slower growth or higher uncertainty typically warrants a lower, more conservative PE.

Expeditors currently trades on a PE of about 24.0x, which is richer than both the logistics industry average of roughly 15.9x and its wider peer group at around 19.0x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of about 13.9x for Expeditors, which reflects what investors might reasonably pay given the company’s specific earnings growth outlook, profit margins, industry dynamics, market value and risk profile. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it explicitly bakes in company specific fundamentals rather than assuming all logistics firms deserve similar valuations.

Comparing Expeditors current PE of 24.0x with the 13.9x Fair Ratio suggests the shares are trading well above what its fundamentals alone would justify.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you attach a clear story to your numbers by spelling out what you believe about a company’s future revenue, earnings and margins, and then translating that story into a forecast and a fair value. A Narrative connects three things in a straight line: how you think Expeditors International of Washington’s business will evolve, what that means for its financials over time, and what a reasonable price per share could be today. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and explore Narratives on the Community page, where you can quickly see how different assumptions lead to different fair values and use that to decide whether Expeditors looks attractive or unattractive compared with its current market price. These Narratives update dynamically as new information, such as fresh earnings results or major trade news, comes in, so your view can evolve with the facts. You might see one Narrative that assumes Expeditors deserves a much higher fair value because global trade normalizes rapidly, while another assumes a lower fair value due to prolonged freight weakness.

Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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