Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the copper price increase next year will still be high, and the risk of tariffs is still high

The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for copper prices in 2026 on the grounds that the risk of the US imposing copper import tariffs is still high, which will continue to support copper prices. In the report, Goldman Sachs raised the average price forecast for copper in 2026 from 10,650 US dollars to 11,400 US dollars per ton, and predicted that the copper import tariff policy that the market has always feared may be implemented in 2027.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs estimates that the Trump administration is 55% likely to announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026. The policy is expected to take effect in 2027, and the tariff may increase to 30% in 2028.

Goldman Sachs said that expectations for future tariffs are likely to make the US copper price higher than the London Metal Exchange benchmark price, thereby encouraging more hoarding and tightening supply in non-US markets — this is currently a key driver of global pricing dynamics. Goldman Sachs added that structural factors, including stockpiling and uncertainty in trade policies, continue to support prices.

Despite an increase in the 2026 copper price forecast, Goldman Sachs kept its 2027 copper price forecast unchanged at $10,750 per ton. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to fall back on the London Metal Exchange once tariffs take effect and the global market is rebalanced. The bank also raised its forecast for the 2026 global copper surplus from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, which reflects a stronger supply growth trend in the future.