CICC's 2026 Banking Outlook: Focus on the level and certainty of dividend rates

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that as financial infrastructure, banks have entered a stage of high-quality development. The profit growth rate of a few listed banks recorded double-digit year-on-year growth in the past year or two, and high-dividend investment has become the main paradigm. On the banking side, focus on the level and certainty of dividend rates. The level depends on valuation and profit growth rates, while certainty focuses on asset quality and revenue sustainability. Under the benchmark situation, we continue to be optimistic about the absolute return and relative earnings performance of bank stocks. The capital mainly comes from allocation requirements. The high dividend label of bank stocks is increasingly recognized by the market, and the biggest characteristic of other industries is “volume.”

CICC's main views are as follows:

Steady progress is an expression of the performance characteristics of listed banks in 2026

CICC expects the year-on-year growth rates of operating income covering listed banks in 2026 and 2027 to be +2.5% and +3.6%, respectively, and net profit growth rates to mother will be +1.9% and +2.6%, respectively; the main reasons for the year-on-year increase in revenue and profit growth are as follows:

Due to 1) the further reduction in net interest spread pressure, 2) the reduction in the volume and quality of credit investment, mainly due to weak demand for credit loans and insufficient risk compensation, the regional and industry characteristics of investment are more obvious; 3) after several years of fee cuts and concessions, the growth rate of handling fee revenue is expected to rise steadily; 4) Exposures related to small and micro enterprises and retail customers are still the main source of bad generation, and the company's business exposure has remained stable or even improved.

5) It is expected that supply-side reforms in the industry will accelerate, as reflected in the rapid decline in the number of bank licenses and improvements in industry competition and business patterns. The characteristics of customer demand in the era of low interest rates, the government and state-owned assets system became an important component of increased leverage, affecting new social finance structures, and gradually reflected in bank balance sheets. Therefore, the target customer structure and business area characteristics determine the differences in the pace of bank institutions' expansion in the past and next few years.

In addition, the domestic market also includes the impact of many regulatory policies. For example, the development of bank inclusiveness services has entered a new stage

On the supply side, risk compensation rather than insufficient number of customers limits banks' motivation to further expand and serve the customer base; on the demand side, when customer coverage increases dramatically, product service experience rather than price has become the main focus of the inclusive customer base. Once the intended effects of similar regulatory policies are fully demonstrated, further withdrawal or optimization will be critical. CICC expects the growth rate of credit social finance balances to slow slightly in 2026, and the share of exposure structures such as interest rate bonds will further increase.

risk factors

Real estate developers' risk management exceeded expectations, and retail risk exposure exceeded expectations.