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    How Weyerhaeuser’s (WY) New Biocarbon Venture Could Reshape Its Climate-Focused Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 15:21:24
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    • Earlier this week, Weyerhaeuser and Aymium signed a memorandum of understanding and launched TerraForge Biocarbon Solutions to convert over 7 million tons of Weyerhaeuser-supplied wood fiber into 1.5 million tons of metallurgical-grade biocarbon annually, beginning with a low-emissions facility next to Weyerhaeuser’s McComb, Mississippi lumber mill.
    • This partnership strengthens Weyerhaeuser’s newly outlined Climate Solutions growth plan and Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources segment by creating a new outlet for its timber base while offering metals producers a coal replacement that requires no process changes.
    • We’ll now examine how this biocarbon joint venture, central to Weyerhaeuser’s climate solutions push, could reshape the company’s investment narrative.

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    Weyerhaeuser Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Weyerhaeuser, you need to believe its timber, wood products, and climate solutions can convert a cyclical housing and lumber business into steadier cash generation. The TerraForge biocarbon venture supports the long term climate solutions story, but it does not change the near term reliance on housing-driven lumber demand, which still looks like the key catalyst, or the risk from softer pricing if macro uncertainty keeps buyers cautious.

    The most direct link is to Weyerhaeuser’s 2025 Investor Day plan to grow Climate Solutions EBITDA by about US$170 million by 2030 and lift total Adjusted EBITDA by US$1.5 billion. TerraForge fits inside that framework as a potential new use for Weyerhaeuser’s fiber and a way to diversify away from pure lumber exposure, even as short term results continue to be heavily influenced by housing activity and wood products pricing.

    But against this opportunity, investors should also understand how weaker lumber demand and pricing could still pressure cash flows and dividends over time if...

    Read the full narrative on Weyerhaeuser (it's free!)

    Weyerhaeuser's narrative projects $8.2 billion revenue and $990.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.2% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $711 million earnings increase from $279.0 million today.

    Uncover how Weyerhaeuser's forecasts yield a $30.18 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    WY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    WY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$21.90 to US$40.61, showing how differently individual investors assess Weyerhaeuser. You should weigh those opinions against the company’s heavy exposure to lumber pricing and housing demand, which remains a key swing factor for earnings and the investment case overall.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Weyerhaeuser - why the stock might be worth as much as 74% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Weyerhaeuser Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.