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GF Securities released the 2026 asset allocation strategy outlook, predicting that global economic easing will continue in 2026, artificial intelligence will hardly bubble, and continue to lay the foundation for a bullish equity market. China's economy is expected to maintain steady operation at medium to high speeds in the year the “15th Five-Year Plan” begins. Inflation will continue to rise moderately, investment will make up, consumption will continue to play a fundamental supporting role, and exports may decline slightly. The policy focus will focus more on the balance between industrial transformation and upgrading and “development and safety.” In the context of the power game, technological independence and industrial chain security have become the main long-term lines. In overseas markets, the US economy is expected to achieve a “soft landing”. Short-term inflationary pressure is manageable, but tariff increases may lead to a medium- to long-term rise in the center of inflation. At the same time, the revolution in artificial intelligence technology will continue to deepen and become the core driving force through the economic cycle. European fiscal expansion is driving economic recovery, Indian companies' profit expectations are strong, and the attractiveness of emerging markets in the global capital landscape is increasing. The US dollar index is expected to weaken moderately in 2026. Demand for interest rate cuts, interest rate spreads, and economic pressure will gradually push the US dollar index downward. Under the policy of promoting the internationalization of the RMB, currency stability is still the main line, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to strengthen moderately.

智通財經·12/15/2025 11:17:05
語音播報
GF Securities released the 2026 asset allocation strategy outlook, predicting that global economic easing will continue in 2026, artificial intelligence will hardly bubble, and continue to lay the foundation for a bullish equity market. China's economy is expected to maintain steady operation at medium to high speeds in the year the “15th Five-Year Plan” begins. Inflation will continue to rise moderately, investment will make up, consumption will continue to play a fundamental supporting role, and exports may decline slightly. The policy focus will focus more on the balance between industrial transformation and upgrading and “development and safety.” In the context of the power game, technological independence and industrial chain security have become the main long-term lines. In overseas markets, the US economy is expected to achieve a “soft landing”. Short-term inflationary pressure is manageable, but tariff increases may lead to a medium- to long-term rise in the center of inflation. At the same time, the revolution in artificial intelligence technology will continue to deepen and become the core driving force through the economic cycle. European fiscal expansion is driving economic recovery, Indian companies' profit expectations are strong, and the attractiveness of emerging markets in the global capital landscape is increasing. The US dollar index is expected to weaken moderately in 2026. Demand for interest rate cuts, interest rate spreads, and economic pressure will gradually push the US dollar index downward. Under the policy of promoting the internationalization of the RMB, currency stability is still the main line, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to strengthen moderately.