Coty (COTY) Valuation Check as JAB Forces Leadership Overhaul and Weighs Brand Divestitures

Coty (COTY) is back in the spotlight after controlling shareholder JAB Holdings moved to replace both long time chair Peter Harf and CEO Sue Nabi, tying leadership change directly to weak performance and strategic headaches.

See our latest analysis for Coty.

The leadership reset comes after a tough stretch, with Coty’s share price down sharply over the past year and total shareholder return also deeply negative, signaling fading momentum as investors weigh execution risks, divestiture talk, and the looming Gucci licence loss against its prestige growth ambitions.

If this shake up has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to explore healthcare stocks as another corner of the market where defensiveness and growth often collide.

With the stock down more than 50 percent over the past year but still trading below analyst targets, is Coty now a mispriced turnaround story, or is the market sensibly discounting tougher years and muted growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 33.3% Undervalued

With Coty closing at $3.22 against a narrative fair value near $4.83, the implied upside leans heavily on a multi year earnings reset.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $302.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.38) by about September 2028, up from $-381.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $347 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $250.3 million.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of slow burning revenue growth, margin rebuild, and future earnings multiple are stitched together to justify that upside gap? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $4.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent inventory destocking and the looming Gucci license loss could delay margin recovery and force investors to recalibrate that upside story.

Find out about the key risks to this Coty narrative.

Build Your Own Coty Narrative

If this perspective does not quite match your own view, or you would rather dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Coty.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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