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    Global Business Travel Group (GBTG): Reassessing Valuation After Ares’ Stake Increase and Mixed Earnings Results

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 19:15:46
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    Ares Management just boosted its stake in Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) by nearly 22%, right after the company beat revenue expectations but missed on earnings, a mix that is giving investors plenty to unpack.

    See our latest analysis for Global Business Travel Group.

    That backdrop helps explain why the latest share price of $8.06 comes after a 1 month share price return of 12.26%, even as the year to date share price return is still negative and the 3 year total shareholder return of 28.34% hints that long term momentum is not broken.

    If Ares adding exposure has you wondering where else institutional style conviction might be building, this is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With the stock trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and still nursing double digit losses this year, is the market overlooking Global Business Travel Group’s improving fundamentals or already pricing in its next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 25.8% Undervalued

    With Global Business Travel Group last closing at $8.06 against a narrative fair value of $10.86, the valuation case leans toward meaningful upside if the forecast plays out.

    The pending acquisition of CWT, now cleared for completion in Q3, is expected to drive substantial net synergies ($155 million targeted over three years), delivering scale and operational efficiency that should enhance EBITDA margins and long-term earnings power.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a maturing travel platform gets priced like a growth story? The narrative leans on accelerating earnings, expanding margins, and a richer future multiple. Want to see the exact profit and revenue path this valuation assumes, and how it gets discounted back to today? Read on for the full breakdown behind that fair value.

    Result: Fair Value of $10.86 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, structurally slower corporate travel growth and potential CWT integration hiccups could easily cap margins and stall the upside that this optimistic scenario assumes.

    Find out about the key risks to this Global Business Travel Group narrative.

    Build Your Own Global Business Travel Group Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own research, you can build a personalized view in minutes by using Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Global Business Travel Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.