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    Could Brown-Forman’s (BF.B) Buybacks Offset Earnings Pressure From the Prolonged Canadian Boycott?

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 17:23:52
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    • In the past quarter, Brown-Forman completed a US$265.8 million share repurchase of 9,543,230 shares, while reporting second-quarter revenue of US$1,036 million and net income of US$224 million, both lower than a year ago.
    • The company’s results highlighted how the ongoing Canadian boycott of U.S. spirits, with a very large decline in that market’s sales, is weighing on earnings despite its premium brands and cost-efficiency efforts.
    • Next, we’ll examine how weaker earnings tied to the prolonged Canadian boycott affects Brown-Forman’s previously outlined investment narrative.

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    Brown-Forman Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Brown-Forman, you need to believe its premium spirits brands and efficiency efforts can offset pressures in mature markets and shifts toward moderation. The latest quarter shows that the Canadian boycott is now the most immediate earnings headwind, while the main near term catalyst remains whether premiumization and emerging market growth can keep overall revenue and profit trends resilient. For now, the boycott impact looks material, but concentrated in one market.

    The recent completion of a US$265.8 million buyback, retiring about 2.0% of shares, is the announcement that stands out alongside weaker results. With Q2 revenue down to US$1,036 million and EPS slipping to US$0.47, the combination of reduced share count and earnings pressure puts more focus on whether core brands and premium offerings can re-accelerate growth enough to support shareholder returns over time.

    Yet investors should be aware that prolonged trade disputes and tariffs could keep Brown-Forman exposed to...

    Read the full narrative on Brown-Forman (it's free!)

    Brown-Forman's narrative projects $4.1 billion revenue and $870.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $26.2 million earnings increase from $844.0 million today.

    Uncover how Brown-Forman's forecasts yield a $30.91 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BF.B 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BF.B 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from about US$4.28 to US$42.77 per share, underscoring how differently people view Brown-Forman. When you set those views against the current drag from the Canadian boycott and softer earnings, it becomes even more important to compare multiple viewpoints before deciding how this business might fit into your portfolio.

    Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Brown-Forman - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Brown-Forman Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.