Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC): Evaluating Valuation After Dividend Hike, Buyback Extension and Leadership Changes

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) just gave income focused investors something to consider: the Board raised its quarterly dividend to $0.80 per share and extended the share repurchase authorization into 2026.

See our latest analysis for Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

The move comes after a tough stretch, with the share price down sharply on a one year and multi year basis. However, a 27.3% one month share price return suggests sentiment may be turning as investors digest leadership changes and the modernization plan alongside these shareholder friendly capital returns.

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With earnings rebounding, a richer dividend, buybacks, and analysts still seeing upside to the current share price, the key question now is whether VAC is genuinely undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in this turnaround.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9.5% Undervalued

With shares last closing at $57.92 against a most popular narrative fair value near $64, the story hinges on what drives those future earnings.

Ongoing modernization initiatives, including advanced analytics, AI-based propensity models, expanded digital marketing channels, and automation, are expected to deliver $150M to $200M in incremental adjusted EBITDA run-rate benefits by the end of the next year, improving both revenue and margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this transformation push turns into that higher valuation signal? The narrative rests on aggressive revenue expansion, shifting margins, and a surprisingly modest future earnings multiple.

Result: Fair Value of $64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing owner sales and rising credit risk could undermine growth expectations, particularly if higher defaults and weaker upselling persist longer than anticipated.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott Vacations Worldwide narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott Vacations Worldwide Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marriott Vacations Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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