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    Is Astrana Health’s (ASTH) Bigger Bet on Full-Risk Deals Quietly Rewriting Its Earnings Story?

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 13:10:31
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    • Earlier this week, Needham initiated coverage of Astrana Health with a Buy rating, highlighting its focus on value-based care growth and an increased shift toward full-risk deals, while recent SEC filings showed Director Thomas Lam exercising options for 29,502 shares worth about US$99,716.
    • The combination of upbeat analyst commentary on Astrana’s performance in value-based models and insider option exercise has drawn attention to how its risk-bearing approach might influence its long-term business mix and earnings profile.
    • Next, we’ll examine how Needham’s focus on Astrana’s accelerated shift into full-risk value-based contracts may reshape the company’s investment narrative.

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    Astrana Health Investment Narrative Recap

    Astrana Health appeals to investors who believe in value-based care and the company’s push toward full-risk contracts as a driver of higher-quality, recurring revenue. Needham’s upbeat initiation and Thomas Lam’s option exercise do not materially change the key near term catalyst, which remains execution in risk-bearing models after recent EPS volatility. The biggest risk is still reimbursement and policy exposure across Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, which can directly affect profitability.

    Needham’s focus on Astrana’s faster tilt into full-risk deals than peers is especially relevant here, because it ties directly into both the company’s core growth thesis and its sensitivity to government payer economics and utilization trends.

    Yet while the shift to full-risk contracts is central to the upside case, investors should also be aware of how concentrated Astrana is in government reimbursement…

    Read the full narrative on Astrana Health (it's free!)

    Astrana Health's narrative projects $4.5 billion revenue and $148.7 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Astrana Health's forecasts yield a $40.25 fair value, a 71% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASTH 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASTH 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Astrana’s fair value between US$40.25 and US$67.33, well above the recent share price. You are weighing these optimistic views against the reality that heavy reliance on Medicare Advantage and Medicaid keeps policy and reimbursement risk front and center for future performance.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Astrana Health - why the stock might be worth just $40.25!

    Build Your Own Astrana Health Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.