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    Did Trimble’s (TRMB) New US$1 Billion Buyback and Dealer Expansion Just Recast Its Capital Story?

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 00:26:31
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    • In early December 2025, Trimble Inc. announced that its board had authorized a new share repurchase program of up to US$1.00 billion in common stock, with no expiration date, replacing its prior US$1.00 billion authorization.
    • Trimble also expanded its Trimble Technology Outlet network by adding Southeastern Equipment Company as an authorized reseller across five U.S. states, underscoring how capital returns are being paired with efforts to widen the reach of its construction technology solutions.
    • Next, we’ll examine how the new US$1.00 billion share repurchase authorization could influence Trimble’s shift toward higher-margin recurring revenue.

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    Trimble Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Trimble, you need to believe in its shift from hardware-heavy sales to higher margin, software and subscription-based workflows across construction, infrastructure and positioning. The new US$1.00 billion buyback does not materially change that core thesis in the short term, but it does sit alongside a key near term catalyst in recurring revenue growth and an ongoing risk that competitors could accelerate faster in AI and cloud-based solutions.

    The expansion of the Trimble Technology Outlet network through Southeastern Equipment Company ties directly into those catalysts by putting Trimble’s grade control, site positioning and correction services in front of more day to day construction users. Wider distribution in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and West Virginia could support higher adoption of connected hardware and subscription services, but it also heightens the importance of Trimble keeping its offerings differentiated amid intensifying price and technology competition.

    Yet investors should be aware that if competitors push AI and cloud capabilities faster than Trimble can keep up …

    Read the full narrative on Trimble (it's free!)

    Trimble's narrative projects $4.1 billion revenue and $776.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $489.7 million earnings increase from $286.7 million today.

    Uncover how Trimble's forecasts yield a $98.45 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TRMB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TRMB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members have only two fair value estimates for Trimble, clustered tightly between US$98.45 and US$102.42 per share. Against that narrow range, the ongoing risk of faster moving AI and cloud competitors could affect how different investors think about Trimble’s ability to sustain its higher margin recurring revenue ambitions over time.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Trimble - why the stock might be worth as much as 28% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Trimble Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.